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Krigets Atmosfär: Ett perspektiv på betydelsen av ovisshet i militära operationer
Swedish Defence University.
2013 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Ovissheten är en del i det Clausewitz benämner som krigets atmosfär, populär kallat krigets dimma. Det finns de som hävdar att ovisshet är något som kan avhjälpas med bättre sensorer samtidigt som det finns de som hävdar att ovissheten genomsyrar alla militära operationer. 

I det här arbetet skall ovissheten i ett specifikt fall belysas i syfte att möjiggöra en diskussion om hur ovissheten kan te sig i militära operationer.  Arbetet sker genom en fallstudie av delar av den japanska invasionen av Malaysia 1941. Undersökningen bygger på en kvalitativ studie av två officerares olika syn på samma händelser.  Fokus ligger vid att belysa ovisshet i deras föreställningar före och under invasionen.

Studien resulterade i att ovissheten konkretiserades och indelades i de olika former som observerades under arbetet. Ovissheten visar sig vara ett vitt begrepp med många ursprung och olika påverkan.  Avslutningsvis förs en diskussion rörande hur ovissheten kan hanteras för att om möjligt lindra de negativa effekter som ovissheten annars kan föra med sig. 

Abstract [en]

Uncertainty is one part of what Clausewitz names the atmosphere of war, often referred to as the fog of war.  There are those who state that uncertainty are something that can be undone with better sensor systems, while there are those who state that uncertainty imbue all military operations.

In this study uncertainty in a specific case will be illuminated, with the purpose to render a discussion possible about how uncertainty can be expressed in military operations. The study is based on a case study contains parts of the Japanese invasion of Malaya 1941. The case study is based on an analysis of two officer’s different view of the same campaign. The focus is to illuminate the uncertainty in their conceptions before and during the invasion. 

The study resulted in that uncertainty was concretized and divided in to different shapes that had been discovered during the process. Finally uncertainty is discussed; in terms of how to approach to minimize negative impact, and, if it is possible to overcome as some suggest.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. , p. 32
Keywords [en]
Uncertainty, the atmosphere of war, friction, Clausewitz, Singapore
Keywords [sv]
Ovisshet, krigets atmosfär, friktion, Clausewitz, Singapore
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4052OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-4052DiVA, id: diva2:632703
Subject / course
War Studies, Thesis
Educational program
Officersprogrammet (OP)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2013-08-05 Created: 2013-06-25 Last updated: 2018-08-15Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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