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Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8968-9793
Chalmers University of Technology, Shipping and Marine Technology .
Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
2012 (English)In: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, no 154, A21-A30 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London, 2012. no 154, A21-A30 p.
Keyword [en]
risk analysis, military-technology, naval ships, safety, security, scenario
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2609OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-2609DiVA: diva2:528364
Available from: 2012-05-25 Created: 2012-05-25 Last updated: 2017-01-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
2012 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.

The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.

The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.

The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.

The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Göteborg: Chalmers University of Technology, 2012. 96 p.
Series
Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, ISSN 1652-9189 ; 12:141
Keyword
naval ship, piracy, risk-based, risk control options, ship security analysis
National Category
Vehicle Engineering Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2835 (URN)
Presentation
2012-11-15, Gamma, Forskningsgången 4, Chalmers Campus Lindholmen, Göteborg, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2012-10-25 Created: 2012-10-21 Last updated: 2017-01-04Bibliographically approved
2. Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach
2015 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Riskanalys inom fartygsskydd : en analysstrategi för bättre beslutsunderlag
Abstract [en]

The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

Abstract [sv]

Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd. I avhandlingen undersöks både militära och civila förhållanden och därför kan erfarenheter från båda områdena användas.

Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.

För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.

Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen.  Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Göteborg: Chalmers tekniska högskola, 2015. 73 p.
Series
Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola, Ny serie, ISSN 0346-718X ; 3808
Keyword
naval ship, piracy, risk-based, risk control options, ship security analysis, survivability, uncertainty analysis, militära fartyg, sjöröveri, riskanalys, sjöfartsskydd, överlevnadsförmåga
National Category
Vehicle Engineering Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Mathematical Analysis Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5271 (URN)978-91-7597-127-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2015-03-12, Lecture hall Alfa, house Saga, Hörselgången 4, Lindholmen, Göteborg, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2015-02-11 Created: 2015-02-03 Last updated: 2015-04-08Bibliographically approved

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