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Under vilka betingelser vinner stater mellanstatliga krig?
Swedish National Defence College.
2002 (Swedish)Student paper otherStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Det finns en uppfattning att antalet stater i en koalition har en negativ inverkan påsannolikheten för seger i krig. Flera författare beskriver de koordinations- ochinteroperabilitetsproblem som finns mellan stater i en koalition. Interoperabilitetbeskrivs som nyckeln till framtida krigföring. Denna uppsats bedömer dettapåstående genom att med en statistisk metod undersöka problemet. Syftet meduppsatsen är att med utgångspunkt från en teoretisk diskussion kvantitativtundersöka huruvida antalet stater utgör en betingelse för seger i ett krig. I denteoretiska diskussionen förklaras begreppet interoperabilitet. En hypotes formulerasmed grund i en teoretisk ansats. Denna ansats bygger på förkla ringsmodeller på dekoordinationsproblem, kultur- och språkskillnader som finns i mellanstatligtsamarbete. Två alternativa hypoteser formuleras också. Hypoteserna testas sedan,utnyttjande PROBIT regressionsanalys, med ett dataset inkluderande allamellanstatliga krig 1823-1990. Resultatet tyder på att hypotesen och den allmännauppfattningen om antalet stater i en koalition inte får något stöd. Deinteroperabilitetsproblem som finns mellan stater i en koalition är inte så generellaatt de påverkar utfallet av krig.

Abstract [en]

There is a common view that the number of states negatively influences theprobability of victory for coalitions. Many writers describe the coordinationandinteroperability problems existing between states inside coalitions.Interoperability is claimed as the key to future warfare; this essay assesses theclaim using a statistical method. The purpose of this essay is to study if thenumber of states is a condition for victory, based on theoretical discussion. Inthe theoretical discussion interoperability is defined. A hypothesis isformulated on the basis of a theoretical approach. This approach is built ondifferent models referring to the co-ordination, culture and language problemsthat exist in interstate co-operation. Two alternative hypotheses are alsoformulated. Using PROBIT regression the hypotheses are then tested on a dataset including all interstate wars from 1823 to 1990. It is found that the mainhypothesis is not supported. The interoperability problems that exist betweenstates in a coalition are not critical enough to influence the probability ofvictory in war.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2002. , 50 p.
Keyword [en]
Coalitions
Keyword [sv]
Samarbete, Koalitioner, Strategi, Allianser, Sverige, Uppsatser, Chefsprogrammet, Chefsprogrammet 2000-2002, Interoperabilitet
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-1869OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-1869DiVA: diva2:429278
Educational program
Chefsprogrammet. (ChP)
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Note
Avdelning: ALB - Slutet Mag 3 C-upps. Hylla: Upps. ChP 00-02Available from: 2011-07-05 Created: 2011-07-04 Last updated: 2011-07-05Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
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More styles
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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