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Armed conflicts throughout history have always involved anticipating the opponent's strategies to increase your own chances of victory, which is even more vital if your opponent is stronger. On 24 February 2022, the strong state of Russia invaded the much weaker state of Ukraine after eight years of military tension. Despite the protracted military escalation, the outcomes of the battles fought vary, with both actors achieving success to different degrees.  

Existing theories provide solid explanations for historical asymmetric conflict outcomes, but most of these theories lack explanatory value in contemporary armed conflicts, which this paper aims to examine. The purpose of the study is to test existing asymmetric conflict theory against a contemporary ongoing armed conflict, where the strategic interaction thesis by Ivan Arreguín-Toft is used in a theory-testing approach.

The results show that both actors use a combination of attack and defence strategies, illustrating the complex nature of war. However, the results show a clear tendency towards opposite approach strategies on the part of the weak actor, which supports the theory of strategic interaction.