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Predicting COVID-19 hospitalizations: The importance of healthcare hotlines, test positivity rates and vaccination coverage
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division. Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3017-0874
Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, (SWE) Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, (SWE).
Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, (SWE).
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, (NLD).
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2024 (English)In: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, ISSN 1877-5845, E-ISSN 1877-5853, Vol. 48, article id 100636Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study, we developed a negative binomial regression model for one-week ahead spatio-temporal predictions of the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Uppsala County, Sweden. Our model utilized weekly aggregated data on testing, vaccination, and calls to the national healthcare hotline. Variable importance analysis revealed that calls to the national healthcare hotline were the most important contributor to prediction performance when predicting COVID-19 hospitalizations. Our results support the importance of early testing, systematic registration of test results, and the value of healthcare hotline data in predicting hospitalizations. The proposed models may be applied to studies modeling hospitalizations of other viral respiratory infections in space and time assuming count data are overdispersed. Our suggested variable importance analysis enables the calculation of the effects on the predictive performance of each covariate. This can inform decisions about which types of data should be prioritized, thereby facilitating the allocation of healthcare resources.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 48, article id 100636
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, Negative binomial regression, Spatio-temporal modeling, Time series, Prediction
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12188DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2024.100636OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-12188DiVA, id: diva2:1834116
Funder
EU, European Research Council, ERC-2018-STG 801965Vinnova, 2020-03173Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, 2019-0505Swedish Research Council, 2019-01471Available from: 2024-02-02 Created: 2024-02-02 Last updated: 2024-02-06Bibliographically approved

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van Zoest, Vera

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