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Institutional influence on assessments: the institutional analysis and development framework applied to military intelligence
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Applications Section.
2018 (English)In: The International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs, ISSN 2380-0992, Vol. 20, no 1, p. 47-70Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

How can we understand intelligence assessments and intelligence work? The intelligence literature offers several plausible causes of failures and the consequences of such failures. However, there is a direct lack of theories or frameworks that connect these variables, that is, there is an incomplete understanding of both how those variables interact and their underlying mechanisms. Failures as such do only give one part of the picture. Why intelligence succeed is equally if not more important to understand. The military intelligence service from an institutional perspective may help to give this understanding.

This study connects these variables with Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, which yields a model to understand the mechanisms of institutional on the assessment and lays a foundation for a common terminology. The study uses the Swedish military intelligence institution active in Afghanistan between 2008 and 2012 as a case.

Abstract [es]

¿Cómo podemos entender las valoraciones de inteligencia y el trabajo de inteligencia? La literatura de inteligencia ofrece varias causas plausibles de los fallos de inteligencia y las consecuencias de tales fallos. Sin embargo, hay una falta directa de teorías o marcos que conecten estas variables, es decir, hay una comprensión incompleta de cómo esas variables interactúan y sus mecanismos subyacentes. Los fallos como tales solo proporcionan una parte de la imagen completa. Por qué la inteligencia tiene éxito es igualmente, si no más, importante de entender. Los servicios de inteligencia militar desde una perspectiva institucional pueden ayudar a proporcionar comprensión de esto. Este estudio conecta estas variables con el Marco de Análisis y Desarrollo Institucional de Ostrom (IAD) que ofrece un modelo para comprender los mecanismos institucionales en las estimaciones o valoraciones y sienta las bases para una terminología común. El artículo utiliza como caso de estudio la institución de inteligencia militar sueca activa en Afganistán entre 2008 y 2012.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2018. Vol. 20, no 1, p. 47-70
Keyword [en]
intelligence analysis, military intelligence, institutions, IAD framework, threat assessment
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7387DOI: 10.1080/23800992.2018.1436391OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-7387DiVA, id: diva2:1197183
Available from: 2018-04-12 Created: 2018-04-12 Last updated: 2018-04-20Bibliographically approved

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Bang, Martin

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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