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Proposing a Mathematical Dynamic Model to Develop a National Maritime Security Assessment and Build a National Maritime Security Plan
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3263-5962
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9246-0263
Swedish Defence University, Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security, Systems Science for Defence and Security Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8968-9793
World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden, (SWE).
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2023 (English)In: Journal of Maritime Research, ISSN 1697-4840, E-ISSN 1697-9133, Vol. 20, no 3, p. 123-132Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A proper assessment of maritime security risks at the national level is crucial to a national maritimesecurity plan (NMSP) in order to secure the concerned country’s ports, vessels and territorial sea. Thus, the importance of implementing a national maritime security assessment (NMSA) to counter securitythreats and ensure the continuity of national and international trade. The most important set of inter-national regulations concerning maritime security is the International Ship and Port Facility Security(ISPS) Code, which includes revision, approval and control of compliance of the Port Facility Security Plan (PFSP), which shall be based upon the Port Facility Security Assessment (PFSA). This paper proposes a mathematical dynamic model that calculates in real time the residual risk for the whole country and each of its ports by adapting and expanding the formula and procedures established in the Code, which since it has already been implemented around the world, gives the opportunity to take advantageof this quantitative solution to administrate maritime security risks on a nation-wide basis and create an effective national maritime security plan, which would allow the concerned authorities to improve situational awareness and adapt to security changes through a better planning of human, economic and material resources to deter security threats. The model was tested with the use of five encoded categories as countries, each of them with three ports, which encompassed three port facilities. The results indicate that this methodology is easy to implement and widespread use of that model could strength robustness in national security. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 20, no 3, p. 123-132
Keywords [en]
International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, National Maritime Security Plan (NMSP), National Maritime Security Assessment (NMSA), Maritime & Port Security, National Security.
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Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12092OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-12092DiVA, id: diva2:1824032
Available from: 2024-01-03 Created: 2024-01-03 Last updated: 2024-01-05Bibliographically approved

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Ávila-Zúñiga Nordfjeld, AdrianaDansarie, MarcusLiwång, Hans

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