Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

fhs.se
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Why are we surprised by extreme weather, pandemics and migration crises when we know they will happen? Exploring the added value of contingency thinking
Swedish Defence University, Department of Political Science and Law, Political Science Division. (EU-kris)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1527-5368
2024 (English)In: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, ISSN 0966-0879, E-ISSN 1468-5973, Vol. 32, no 1, p. 1-14Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article attempts to explain why governments are surprised when extreme weather, pandemics and migration crisis hit their own country despite their good knowledge of these global threats. With the help of the contingency concept, the article explores the reasons behind these surprises by introducing a new category of threats that complements the ones in the existing literature on surprise. It adds the concept of ‘known—corporally unknown’ threats to the list of known-unknowns, unknown-unknowns as a way to emphasize the difference between abstract knowledge of ‘facts and figures’ (of e.g., global warming) and the acquiring of knowledge through personal, bodily experience (tangere) (of flooding and draughts). The article demonstrates how Swedish decision-makers—despite their good scientific knowledge and warning signals from abroad—were surprised by the migration crisis of 2015 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 because they had not been in direct touch with massive flows of refugees or pandemics of that scale before. The article ends by discussing new ways of acquiring knowledge about global threats for a deeper, corporally anchored, preparedness for the surprises and contingencies to come.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 32, no 1, p. 1-14
Keywords [en]
contingency, corporally unknown, embodied knowledge, surprise
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12031DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12515OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-12031DiVA, id: diva2:1820663
Projects
Creeping crisis
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, smygande krisAvailable from: 2023-12-18 Created: 2023-12-18 Last updated: 2024-03-10Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Ekengren, Magnus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Ekengren, Magnus
By organisation
Political Science Division
In the same journal
Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management
Political Science

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 375 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf