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Avoiding Nuclear War in the Taiwan Strait
Swedish Defence University, Institutionen för ledarskap och ledning, Leadership and Command & Control Division Stockholm.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6190-4375
2022 (English)Report (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

China’s improving nuclear arsenal, the United States’ deteriorating “strategic ambiguity” policy, and Taiwan’s increasing identification as independent polity raises the prospect of conflict over Taiwan. But the use of nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Straits would happen only under extreme circumstances. This paper argues Beijing is increasing its use of gray-zone tactics with conventional and non-military means below the level of nuclear provocation to tip the cross-straits military balance in its favor. This report first examines China’s aim to achieve unification with Taiwan via its use of threat and use of force in both the nuclear and conventional domains through a close examination of the three historical cross-strait crises. Second, it outlines the geostrategic and geopolitical rationale for continued American support for Taiwan in an era of United States-China competition. Lastly, it explores the role of Taiwan’s consolidating democracy and how Taipei responds to Beijing’s coercion. The report concludes with consideration of how the Taiwan Straits case may affect the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia, including in Japan and on the Korean peninsula.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Seoul: Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability , 2022. , p. 18
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Leadership and Command & Control
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10742OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-10742DiVA, id: diva2:1638568
Available from: 2022-02-17 Created: 2022-02-17 Last updated: 2022-03-11Bibliographically approved

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Lee, Sheryn

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf