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Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section.
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6104-5788
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1197-8173
2021 (English)In: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 67, p. 1-10, article id 101736Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficientalternative to methods such as NATO’s Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of theSwedish Armed Forces’ long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study iswhether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to othersmall to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark’s framework for scienceand technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFTreports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows thatMUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method’s limitations.The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces forchange, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as thesynthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensiveexpertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor’s military capabilities and insubjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021. Vol. 67, p. 1-10, article id 101736
Keywords [en]
Technology forecasting, Intelligence analysis, Military utility assessment, Future technologies, MUAFT, Military utility
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10299DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101736ISI: 000704511300018OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-10299DiVA, id: diva2:1595127
Projects
Värdering av militär nyttaAvailable from: 2021-09-17 Created: 2021-09-17 Last updated: 2022-05-11Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full texthttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X21002116

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Silfverskiöld, StefanAndersson, KentLundmark, Martin

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
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Output format
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