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Prediction of regime change is a constant challenge to intelligence organizations. What intelligence lessons can be learned from the fall of the Shah in 1978?: Why did the US intelligence community fail to predict the fall of the Shah? What failure theory explains it best? What lessons may be drawn from it? Why was Israeli intelligence more successful in this case? What may we learn combined from the US failure and the Israeli success? How does the case match theory on Regime Change and what may we learn?
2019 (English)Other (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This dissertation deals with the “Fall of the Shah” in 1978 from the perspective of intelligence concerning Regime Change. It compares the US and Israeli intelligence effort using intelligence failure theories in combination with intelligence success. The dissertation builds on released documents from the US National Security Archives as well as a variety of secondary sources. It argues that the US failure was caused by mistakes on multiple levels, the lion’s share within policy making and analysis, but also that comprehensive understanding of the case requires an intermixture of theories. Further, several relevant lessons learned can be drawn and the intertwinement of intelligence and Covert Action is highlighted.

Place, publisher, year, pages
Uxbridge, UK, 2019. , p. 40
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Military History
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-9657OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-9657DiVA, id: diva2:1522616
Projects
Dissertation at Master of Intelligence and Security Studies (MAISS)
Note

Uppsats vid Brunel University London.

Available from: 2021-01-26 Created: 2021-01-26 Last updated: 2024-04-02Bibliographically approved

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Fall of the Shah(1121 kB)311 downloads
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Arve, Sten

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Arve, Sten
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf