Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6104-5788
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT).
2019 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. , s. 32
Nyckelord [en]
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective
Nyckelord [sv]
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-8750DiVA, id: diva2:1354393
Forskningsfinansiär
Försvarsmakten, 1129002Tillgänglig från: 2019-09-25 Skapad: 2019-09-25 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-11-07Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Technology Forecast 2019(959 kB)94 nedladdningar
Filinformation
Filnamn FULLTEXT01.pdfFilstorlek 959 kBChecksumma SHA-512
8c7c5cd58d0f3b4452834e7535af36ff0e90e7763335a23aa15c6941766235cde1d320793b5f98cc3da597b613421b0440f972a7c02a6acdf04d370761ff5355
Typ fulltextMimetyp application/pdf

Personposter BETA

Lundmark, MartinAndersson, KentBull, PeterDansarie, Marcus

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Lundmark, MartinAndersson, KentBull, PeterDansarie, Marcus
Av organisationen
Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS)Sektionen för militärtekniska tillämpningar (MteT)
Annan teknik

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 94 nedladdningar
Antalet nedladdningar är summan av nedladdningar för alla fulltexter. Det kan inkludera t.ex tidigare versioner som nu inte längre är tillgängliga.

urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

urn-nbn
Totalt: 1556 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf