Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Technology Forecast 2018: Military Utility of Future Technologies
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section.
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Applications Section.
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Applications Section.
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Systems Section.
Show others and affiliations
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Summary

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility: potentially significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

  • Rapid field      identification of harmful microorganisms
  • Hypersonic      propulsion

 

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • Non-line-of-sight      imaging
  • Artificial      intelligence for military decision support

 

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

  • Structural      energy storage
  • Triboelectric      nanogenerators

 

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2018. , p. 30
Keywords [en]
military technology, forecast, military utility
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8449OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-8449DiVA, id: diva2:1296906
Projects
Teknisk prognosAvailable from: 2019-03-18 Created: 2019-03-18 Last updated: 2019-03-27Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(848 kB)36 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 848 kBChecksum SHA-512
f3a6c7709276e95dd6d969df46365cac2f7bb95462d3caefbba3c8413ebc8e281a846f7a9882e10edf5cf0a9acde8e8a0f66e5be33a4f40c818d4b26b3d93cdb
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Authority records BETA

Lundmark, MartinAmann, DanielDansarie, MarcusLöfgren, LarsSturesson, Petervon Gerber, Carl

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Lundmark, MartinAmann, DanielDansarie, MarcusLöfgren, LarsSturesson, Petervon Gerber, Carl
By organisation
Military Technology Systems SectionMilitary Technology Applications Section
Other Engineering and Technologies

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 36 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 161 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf