The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 promoted Sweden to abandon a 200-year-old policy of non-alignment by applying for NATO-membership. This study investigates factors that influenced the decision to change policy and contrasts it to the decision to not apply for NATO-membership after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
A theoretical model is created to connect Snyders definition of strategic sub-cultures and Westberg’s definitions of strategic methods. The model uses the Swedish perception on NATO, EU, non-alignment/neutrality, and Russia as factors for security as described in the Swedish Defence Commission rapports from 2003-2022. An exploratory qualitative textual analysis is undertaken, and the result is then analyzed through Legros model of policy-transformation.
The study reveals three clearly defined strategic sub-cultures within the Swedish strategic culture. The major factors that influence the change of Sweden’s strategy is that security guarantees isn’t developed outside of Nato and the perceived threat-level of Russia.