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Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6104-5788
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Sektionen för militärtekniska system (MteS).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1197-8173
2021 (engelsk)Inngår i: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 67, s. 1-10, artikkel-id 101736Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficientalternative to methods such as NATO’s Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of theSwedish Armed Forces’ long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study iswhether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to othersmall to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark’s framework for scienceand technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFTreports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows thatMUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method’s limitations.The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces forchange, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as thesynthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensiveexpertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor’s military capabilities and insubjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Elsevier, 2021. Vol. 67, s. 1-10, artikkel-id 101736
Emneord [en]
Technology forecasting, Intelligence analysis, Military utility assessment, Future technologies, MUAFT, Military utility
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URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10299DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101736ISI: 000704511300018OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-10299DiVA, id: diva2:1595127
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Värdering av militär nyttaTilgjengelig fra: 2021-09-17 Laget: 2021-09-17 Sist oppdatert: 2022-05-11bibliografisk kontrollert

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Silfverskiöld, StefanAndersson, KentLundmark, Martin

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