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Communicating uncertainty in risk descriptions: the consequences of presenting imprecise probabilities in time critical decision-making situations
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Ledningssektionen (Ledn). Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-1527-287x
Försvarshögskolan, Militärvetenskapliga institutionen (MVI), Avdelningen för ledningsvetenskap och militärteknik (ALM), Ledningssektionen (Ledn).
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, Lund, (SWE).
2021 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of Risk Research, ISSN 1366-9877, E-ISSN 1466-4461, Vol. 24, nr 5, s. 629-644Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

One important question concerning a risk description is to what extentit should contain information about the uncertainty surrounding an estimatedprobability for an event, for example, by using some form ofprobability range. Presenting a point estimate together with a rangecan inform the decision-maker about both the best judgement as wellas the strength of knowledge regarding the probability in question, sothat the decision-maker can take this information into considerationwhen making decisions. However, communicating uncertainty in riskdescriptions may lead to delays in the decision-making process, due topeople’s general aversion to ambiguity and other forms of uncertainty.This can be devastating in time critical decision-making situations,where delaying decisions leads to substantial costs or losses - as in thecase of a military command and control (C2) situation or in crisisresponse management (CRM). This study investigated how 106 universitystudents handled a fictive time critical military decision-making situationwith imprecise probabilities presented in the form of ranges. Thepurpose was to make a first estimation regarding if presenting uncertaintyin risk descriptions could be a problem in these kinds of situations.The results show that almost half of the participants delayed theirdecisions and that many participants showed little restraint regardingtheir waiting time. These results indicate that communicating uncertaintyin risk descriptions can be a problem in time critical decisionmakingsituations, and that presenting uncertainty in risk descriptionsmay require decision-makers to be educated in the specific problemsassociated with decision-making in these types of situations.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2021. Vol. 24, nr 5, s. 629-644
Emneord [en]
risk description, uncertainty communication, decision-making, imprecise probability, ambiguity, time critical
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Ledningsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-9385DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2020.1801807ISI: 000556453100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-9385DiVA, id: diva2:1460309
Tilgjengelig fra: 2020-08-23 Laget: 2020-08-23 Sist oppdatert: 2022-02-14bibliografisk kontrollert

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