No previous research has studied Swedish conventional deterrence through exercises or if the enemy portrayed in the exercises somehow relates to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To fill that void this study aim to analyse Swedish conventional deterrence in the previously unexamined exercises Aurora 2017 and 2023, as well as differences between them. John Mearsheimers theory on conventional deterrence is used as theoretical framework in the study, an untested perspective in research on exercises as deterrence.
Traces of increasing focus on deterrence are found and the exercises most likely have a deterring effect in general. The analysis shows a difference between the exercises, but the difference is doubtfully related to the invasion. This study contributes with empirical findings on Swedish conventional deterrence. It also reflects on the utility of Mearsheimers theory in a Swedish context and the empirical value of the exercises.