Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

The term seabed warfare, though insufficiently defined, seems to be increasingly important. Unmanned, and specifically autonomous, underwater vehiclesare generally expected to play an essential role in seabed warfare.In addition to smaller unmanned vehicles, which have been used for many years,the focus has lately shifted to what is usually called XLUUVs – extra large unmanned underwater vehicles, with a diameter of more than two metres. These large unmanned submarines could, through their long range and endurance, be suitable systems for seabed warfare outside ports and other confined areas. Some of the largerunmanned submarines can be launched from submarines and thus offer a uniquecapability for covert insertion of the vehicles.The development and employment of XLUUVs is accelerating worldwide, withsystems coming into service in several states, some developed by commercial companies and others on order by armed forces. Two suitable roles for unmanned submarines in a Swedish context could be as patrol vehicles and as decoys to protectmanned submarines

Development of autonomous vessels is expected to create a paradigm shift in how warfare is conducted. Therefore, there is need to explore the possibilities and limitations in developing integrated systems for defence at sea to support innovation. Fleet modelling can analyse functions and other design options such as autonomous platform’s and evaluate their added effect in naval operations. However, due to the complexity of naval operations, it is not feasible to create a tool that covers all aspects needed to mimic reality. This study, from the perspective of naval tactics, investigate the value of a tool that analyses potential fleet architectures including autonomous platforms. The study identifies that the tool creates relevant mental models for future naval fleets by identifying feasible fleet compositions. However, the proposed fleet combinations are only tested against a limited set of tactical needs and can only be seen as a starting point for development.

For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2022 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

·       AI Hardware 

·       Explainable Artificial Intelligence

·       Human-Agent Teaming

·       Photonic Radar

·       Satellite Independent Navigation 

The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain. 

The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

·       Explainable Artificial Intelligence

·       Human-Agent Teaming

·       Photonic Radar

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

·       AI Hardware 

·       Satellite Independent Navigation 

In November 2020, the Swedish government initiated an enquiry with the task to propose a future materiel supply strategy for Sweden’s military defence. Ba[1]sed on this task, we discuss which actors make up today’s national defense industry, specifically within the naval domain. In order to maintain a high rate of innovation, there should be a continuous inflow of new actors. There are different ways to make it possible and attractive for start-ups and other small firms to operate in this complex market. The author suggests in-depth studies of how other nations have approached this issue, and recommends that innovation ecosystems be initiated, centered on specific product platforms, i.e. naval ship classes. 

For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2021 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to Systems Science for Defence and Security Division to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

·       Adversarial Machine Learning 

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

·       Living Sensors

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

·       Adversarial Machine Learning

The following technology was assessed to potentially have moderate military utility:

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles 

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility:

·       Living Sensors