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Publications (3 of 3) Show all publications
Arve, S. (2023). Air Power Considerations for a Small State. Journal of Air Power and Space Studies, 18(2), 136-167
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Air Power Considerations for a Small State
2023 (English)In: Journal of Air Power and Space Studies, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 136-167Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Political Science Other Social Sciences
Research subject
War Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-11884 (URN)
Available from: 2023-10-30 Created: 2023-10-30 Last updated: 2024-04-02
Arve, S. (2020). Learning the lesson of an intelligence failure?. Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademiens Handlingar och Tidskrift (4), 123-125
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Learning the lesson of an intelligence failure?
2020 (English)In: Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademiens Handlingar och Tidskrift, ISSN 0023-5369, no 4, p. 123-125Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [sv]

Denna essä tar utgångspunkt inom teoribildningen rörande ”Intelligence Failure” och hävdaratt det går att fastställa om en organisation har ”lärt av sina misstag” utifrån tre undersökandeperspektiv. Först kan man undersöka organisationens erfarenhetshantering, vilket gerunderlag av formell karaktär. Här lyfts exempel från Försvarsmaktens erfarenhetshanteringfram. Därefter kan man undersöka organisationens reformering utifrån olika utkast om”Intelligence Failure” exemplifierade av Zegart, Betts och Bar-Joseph & Kruglanski. Slutligenkan man undersöka organisationens prestationer över tiden och därigenom få underlag omeffekten av lärandet. Det finns dock flera historiografiska utmaningar med att dra slutsatserutifrån fallstudier och varje perspektiv ovan bidrar helt eller delvis med underlag, beroendepå det särskilda fallet. I kombination formar de emellertid ett stabilt ramverk för undersökningarsom kan påvisa om en organisation ”lärt av sina misstag”.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2020
Keywords
Lessons learned, intelligence, failure, military
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
War Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-9603 (URN)
Available from: 2021-01-04 Created: 2021-01-04 Last updated: 2024-04-02Bibliographically approved
Arve, S. (2019). Prediction of regime change is a constant challenge to intelligence organizations. What intelligence lessons can be learned from the fall of the Shah in 1978?: Why did the US intelligence community fail to predict the fall of the Shah? What failure theory explains it best? What lessons may be drawn from it? Why was Israeli intelligence more successful in this case? What may we learn combined from the US failure and the Israeli success? How does the case match theory on Regime Change and what may we learn?. Uxbridge, UK
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Prediction of regime change is a constant challenge to intelligence organizations. What intelligence lessons can be learned from the fall of the Shah in 1978?: Why did the US intelligence community fail to predict the fall of the Shah? What failure theory explains it best? What lessons may be drawn from it? Why was Israeli intelligence more successful in this case? What may we learn combined from the US failure and the Israeli success? How does the case match theory on Regime Change and what may we learn?
2019 (English)Other (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This dissertation deals with the “Fall of the Shah” in 1978 from the perspective of intelligence concerning Regime Change. It compares the US and Israeli intelligence effort using intelligence failure theories in combination with intelligence success. The dissertation builds on released documents from the US National Security Archives as well as a variety of secondary sources. It argues that the US failure was caused by mistakes on multiple levels, the lion’s share within policy making and analysis, but also that comprehensive understanding of the case requires an intermixture of theories. Further, several relevant lessons learned can be drawn and the intertwinement of intelligence and Covert Action is highlighted.

Place, publisher, year, pages
Uxbridge, UK: , 2019. p. 40
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Military History
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-9657 (URN)
Projects
Dissertation at Master of Intelligence and Security Studies (MAISS)
Note

Uppsats vid Brunel University London.

Available from: 2021-01-26 Created: 2021-01-26 Last updated: 2024-04-02Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-2735-7937

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