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Lundmark, M., Andersson, K., Bull, P. & Dansarie, M. (2019). Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. p. 32
Keywords
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective, teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces, 1129002
Available from: 2019-09-25 Created: 2019-09-25 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Lundmark, M. (2019). The Gripen Fighter: Present and Future Flight. Paris: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Gripen Fighter: Present and Future Flight
2019 (English)Other, Policy document (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [en]

The article describes the present development and status regarding the Swedish fighter aircraft Gripen.

Place, publisher, year, pages
Paris: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, 2019. p. 6
Series
Défense & industries, ISSN 2274-598X ; 13
Keywords
Gripen, fighter, development, collaboration, export, restructuring
National Category
Engineering and Technology Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8645 (URN)
Available from: 2019-06-24 Created: 2019-06-24 Last updated: 2020-01-18
Andersson, K., Lundmark, M. & Silfverskiöld, S. (2019). The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2019. p. 11
Keywords
MUAFT, Technology Forecast
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8660 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces
Available from: 2019-06-26 Created: 2019-06-26 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Lundmark, M. (2019). The Swedish defence industry: drawn between globalization and the domestic pendulum of doctrine and governance (1ed.). In: Hartley, Keith & Belin, Jean (Ed.), The Economics of the Global Defence Industry: (pp. 290-311). New York: Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Swedish defence industry: drawn between globalization and the domestic pendulum of doctrine and governance
2019 (English)In: The Economics of the Global Defence Industry / [ed] Hartley, Keith & Belin, Jean, New York: Routledge, 2019, 1, p. 290-311Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: Routledge, 2019 Edition: 1
Series
Routledge Studies in Defence and Peace Economics ; 16
Keywords
defence industry, Sweden, doctrine, governance, globalization, procurement
National Category
Economics and Business Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8768 (URN)10.4324/9780429466793 (DOI)9781138608092 (ISBN)9780429466793 (ISBN)
Available from: 2019-10-22 Created: 2019-10-22 Last updated: 2020-01-17Bibliographically approved
Axelson, M., Lundmark, M., Olsson, P. & Öhrn-Lundin, J. (2018). Förutsättningar för undervattensförmåga - dagens resurser och morgondagens effekter. Stockholm: FOI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Förutsättningar för undervattensförmåga - dagens resurser och morgondagens effekter
2018 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: FOI, 2018. p. 29
Series
FOI Memo ; 6314
Keywords
Undervattensförmåga, vidmakthållande, resurser, Sverige
National Category
Business Administration
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7250 (URN)
Available from: 2018-02-02 Created: 2018-02-02 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Lundmark, M., Amann, D., Dansarie, M., Löfgren, L. & Sturesson, P. (2018). Technology Forecast 2018: Military Utility of Future Technologies. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2018: Military Utility of Future Technologies
Show others...
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Summary

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility: potentially significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

  • Rapid field      identification of harmful microorganisms
  • Hypersonic      propulsion

 

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • Non-line-of-sight      imaging
  • Artificial      intelligence for military decision support

 

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

  • Structural      energy storage
  • Triboelectric      nanogenerators

 

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2018. p. 30
Keywords
military technology, forecast, military utility
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8449 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognos
Available from: 2019-03-18 Created: 2019-03-18 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Lundmark, M. (2017). Conditions and success factors for companies in international arms collaboration. In: : . Paper presented at Succeeding in Arms Collaboration: Technology Transfer and Export Control, August 17, 2017, University of St Andrews, Scotland (pp. 1-79).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Conditions and success factors for companies in international arms collaboration
2017 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This report discusses what factors and conditions that support a successful implementation of international defence materiel collaboration. It is based on the analysis of a eight multilateral collaborations, with Sweden as a partner in six of them.

Since the mid-1990s, international defence materiel collaboration has represented an increasingly large share of European nations’ defence procurement. This development is likely to continue. As a framework for future decisions concerning international defence materiel collaboration, an analysis is needed regarding how such collaboration between defence companies actually is implemented. The specific purpose of the report is therefore:

  • To identify factors that influence the accomplishment of international defence materiel collaboration between companies

The report is based on eight case studies of international defence materiel collaboration: Iris-T, Joint Strike Fighter, Meteor, MidCas, Neuron, NFR-90, Taurus, and Viking.

Based on the analysis, the findings are:

-          The main conclusions are that international collaboration between companies has a greater probability of a successful outcome if: companies view the collaboration as being strategic; companies have experience of previous collaboration between them; and one single company has the lead in the collaboration.

-          Factors that shape the conditions, but do not have a direct influence on operations, are for example: the products’ degree of innovation, the number of participating companies and the number of participating states.

Based on these results we recommend decision makers in the concerned ministries and authorities to analyse before engaging in international defence materiel collaboration:

-          the concerned companies’ incentives for collaborating;

-          if companies have shared strategic goals for the collaboration;

-          if the companies are on a similar level of technology, and;

-          to demand that one single company has the lead in the collaboration.

Keywords
defence materiel collaboration, cooperation, defence companies, procurement, acquisition, defence materiel development
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8349 (URN)
Conference
Succeeding in Arms Collaboration: Technology Transfer and Export Control, August 17, 2017, University of St Andrews, Scotland
Available from: 2019-01-25 Created: 2019-01-25 Last updated: 2020-01-18Bibliographically approved
Belin, J., Hartley, K., Lefeez, S., Linnenkamp, H., Lundmark, M., Masson, H., . . . Ungaro, A. (2017). Defence industrial links between EU and US. Paris: ARES, Iris
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Defence industrial links between EU and US
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2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The European Commission’s initiatives in the field of armament should lead to a deeper integration of European DTIBs in the coming years. In parallel, the links between European and American DTIBs take the form of technological and armament cooperation, and of capital links between European or American companies. This report aims at analysing the links between the US DTIB and the EU DTIB, and the consequences these links carry on cooperation between European DTIBs.

These links vary by country. France has strived to preserve its strategic autonomy when developing its DTIB. Its technological and capability-related reliance on the United States has thus remained limited. Nonetheless, cooperation is sought when it is mutually beneficial while French companies seek to invest in the US market, as do other European DTIBs.

The German DTIB was rebuilt belatedly after World War II, partly on the basis of French-German cooperation. German industry is now privatised and the scope of the German DTIB’s partnerships has widened to other European countries and to the US. The German supply chain is now well established in American armament programmes.

The Italian DTIB has consistently pursued a policy of active cooperation, whether with the US or with EU member states. Links with the US have notably been built in the context of NATO and through bilateral agreements. In parallel, Italy has developed partnerships with European countries. Rome’s cooperation policy is thus inclusive, and has considered diverse factors such as political links, capability requirements, the need to develop certain technologies and to preserve industrial capabilities and jobs in Italy.

The British DTIB has historically enjoyed deeper links with US industry, as a result of the cultural closeness between the UK and the US, and of the strategic proximity that dates back to the end of World War II. The links between US and UK DTIBs thus follow a model of strategic partnership. Nevertheless, the UK’s industrial and defence policy is also pursued within a European framework. The missile manufacturer MBDA is nowadays considered as the deepest model of transnational industrial and defence integration in Europe.

While Sweden seeks to preserve its industrial capabilities in two sectors – submarines and military aircraft – it appears to be most technologically reliant on the US among the surveyed countries. It is worth noting also that these links are long-standing, dating back to the cold war and the Soviet threat, despite Sweden not being a NATO member state.

The links with the US are thus very different from one country to another, and carry varying implications. While the costs of acquiring American equipment can be low despite their high technological grade, there are often constraints on their use and restrictions on technologies that will not be transferred, or that will be unusable for other partnerships.

These links are also formalised through bilateral agreements promoting armament cooperation, as is the case for UK-Italian cooperation. For its part, Sweden has signed interstate agreements with the US in the field of technological cooperation.

DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL LINKS BETWEEN EU AND US / September 2017

3

Since the European Council meeting in December 2013 and in its 2016 Global Strategy, the EU has set itself the task of developing "a certain degree of strategic autonomy" supposed to encourage greater competitiveness of European DTIBs.

In order to promote the development of this European defence industrial policy, we must seek to ensure that the links between US and EU DTIB are mutually beneficial. To do this, two conditions must be met:

-That the rules governing relations between US and EU DTIB be based on the principle of reciprocity and on equal rules of regulation of respective DTIBs.

-That the rules governing relations between US and EU DTIB be defined in the context of a dialogue between the European Union and the United States and not bilaterally between each European country and the United States.

Today the multiplication of bilateral agreements between the United States and European Union member states are potential obstacles to the establishment of a level playing field governing the relations between European DTIBs;

There is also a lack of reciprocity and equal regulation of EU and US DTIB. This concerns different areas: access to advanced capabilities, unrestricted use of exported armament, access to cooperated technologies, rules governing investment in US and European companies, rules governing property rights over technologies, rules governing export controls.

Organizing the transatlantic relationship in the field of armaments in order to have a more balanced and profitable relationship, can be achieved in two complementary ways.

At the European level, the European Defence Research Program (EDRP) will have strong implications for the relations between the companies of the US DTIB and the EDTIB. The rules governing access to finance and the ownership of intellectual property rights (IPR), which will be adopted for collaborative R&T projects involving European defence companies, will result in a common framework governing the relationship between these companies and the US EDTIB: the more Europeans will collaborate among themselves in the field of defence research, the more they will be able to set common and mutually beneficial rules in their relationship with the United States.

It may also be considered that some EU States will decide to engage in enhanced cooperation in the industrial defence field which could include the following rules:

-Obligation to achieve a level of 30% R&T in common among the members of the enhanced cooperation, which means 10% more than the target that was defined 10 years ago by the European Defence Agency and that is regularly reminded in the objectives of the European Union;

-Obligation to inform members of enhanced cooperation of agreements on defence R&T cooperation concluded with the United States so as to ensure compatibility of these agreements with existing agreements between members of enhanced cooperation. The objective is to prevent agreements with the United States from subsequently restricting the scope of existing agreements between European countries;

DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL LINKS BETWEEN EU AND US / September 2017

4

 

-Obligation to systematically consider the acquisition of military equipment manufactured by one of the member countries of enhanced cooperation. This should be accompanied by reinforced security of supply rules;

-The need to bring the export policies of the member states of the enhanced cooperation closer together.

These rules, complementary with, and not contradictory to, those which are being defined at European Union level, would accelerate industrial defence consolidation in Europe and make it possible to consider on a more balanced, mutually equally beneficial, basis relations between the United States and the European Union in the field of armaments. These rules would also be inspired by political principles: to strengthen the strategic autonomy of the European Union when necessary. Far from forbidding cooperation between the US and the EU DTIB, such enhanced cooperation would be facilitated because cooperation between US EDTIB and EU DTIB would not be a brake on European cooperation, as it is currently still too often the case.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Paris: ARES, Iris, 2017. p. 51
Series
ARES ; 20
Keywords
defence industry, transatlantic, EU, security policy
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7019 (URN)
Available from: 2017-09-12 Created: 2017-09-12 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Axelson, M., Lundmark, M. & Schröder, K. (2017). Snabb anpassning av materielsystem - effektivt samarbete med leverantörer. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Snabb anpassning av materielsystem - effektivt samarbete med leverantörer
2017 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2017. p. 85
Series
FOI-R ; 4408
Keywords
Snabb anpassning, materielsystem, försvarssystem, försvarsindustri, samarbete, brådska
National Category
Business Administration
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7020 (URN)
Available from: 2017-09-12 Created: 2017-09-12 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Sigholm, J., . . . Sturesson, P. (2017). Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
Show others...
2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2017. p. 27
Keywords
Nanocarbons, Photonic Applications, Post Quantum Cryptography, Internet of things, Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents, Hyperspektral bildanalys
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7034 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognos
Available from: 2017-09-19 Created: 2017-09-19 Last updated: 2020-01-23Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-1197-8173

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