Logo: to the web site of the Swedish Defence University

This essay presents the argument that analysts, crystal ball readers and general future-tellers generally should to a much higher extent rely on claimed interests of great powers than on resources alone in predictions of future behaviour of great powers. Analysts should analyse what states want to do given what they could do, as much as analyse what states could do based on their resources, or analysts should analyse state policy intentions as much as state policy resources.

In this volume three parameters that seem geared to directly influence the Russian-European relationship are of particular interest. The first concerns the norms, values and institutions that Russia presently embodies both internally and externally, and which from time to time clash with those of the EU. Most recently there has been significant contention regarding the democratic process and respect for human rights in the countries situated west and south of Russia, and indeed in Russia itself. A second parameter concerns Russia’s relationship to the EU and to European great powers such as Germany, France and Great Britain, each with a long historical lineage. But it also pertains to other states of central concern to Russia, Poland, Italy, and Spain. A third parameter concerns the relations between Russia and the states geographically located between the EU area and Russia but also the former Warzaw pact and Comecon countries most recently joining the EU. Any divergencies among states within the EU is bound to be exploited by Russia, especially when basic interests are involved, and there have been a little bit too much of such divergencies for a common EU strategy towards Russia to develop easily. In addition, the states of the ‘New Europe’ rather reinforce conflicts and deepen the existing rifts regarding democratization, human rights issues and energy dependence.

Russian-European political relations have always been problematic and one of the main reasons for this is the different perspectives on even the very basic notions and concepts of political life. With a worldwide recession, the problems as well as the opportunities in Russian-European relations are magnified. While most works on Russian-European, Russian-American and Russian-West relations focus on current policies and explain them from a standard set of explanatory variables, this book penetrates deeper into the structural and ideational differences that tend to bring about misperceptions, miscalculations, misinterpretations and misdeeds in this two-directional relationship. It applies a very broad conceptual framework to analyse differences that are as relevant for Europe and the EU as it is to Russia’s immediate neighbours and, while doing so, identifies the key factors that will dominate Russia-EU ties in the next decade.