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Agrell, Wilhelm
Publications (3 of 3) Show all publications
Agrell, W. (2013). Den svarta svanen och dess motståndare: Förvarningsaspekter på attentaten i Oslo och på Utøya 22 juli 2011. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Den svarta svanen och dess motståndare: Förvarningsaspekter på attentaten i Oslo och på Utøya 22 juli 2011
2013 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Terrorattentaten i Oslo och på Utøya den 22 juli 2011 är inte bara en av de mest omskakande händelserna i samtida norsk och nordisk historia. Det är också en akut situation som ställde samhällets krishanteringsförmåga på prov över ett brett och delvis oförutsett spektrum. Många lärdomar framstod som mer eller mindre uppenbara, andra som diffusare och svårare att omsätta i förändringsåtgärder. Ett sådant område var den avsaknad av varning som tvingade samhällets krishanteringssystem att agera utan någon förberedelsetid.

Var 22 juli en i raden av stora underrättelse- och varningsmisslyckanden? Eller var i själva verket Anders Behring Breivik en exponent för en i grunden förändrad säkerhetspolitisk karta där hoten inte längre låter sig kategoriseras, kartläggas och bedömas utan uppstår ur oöverblickbara processen på samhälls- och individnivå? I denna rapport från Centrum för asymmetriska hot- och terrorismstudier (CATS) vid Försvarshögskolan undersöker Wilhelm Agrell varningsdimensionen i händelseförloppet före och under terrorattentatet och diskuterar de övergripande och allmänt tillämpbara slutsatser som kan dras från de sätt på vilket frågor kring hotbilder och varning hanterades. Arbetet med rapporten är en del av det projekt kring underrättelsestudier som finansieras av Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2013. p. 95
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Statsvetenskap med inriktning mot strategi och säkerhetspolitik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4361 (URN)9789186137199 (ISBN)
Available from: 2014-01-09 Created: 2014-01-09 Last updated: 2017-08-03Bibliographically approved
Agrell, W. (2013). The Black Swan and Its Opponents: Early Warning Aspects of the Norway Attacks on 22 July 2011. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Black Swan and Its Opponents: Early Warning Aspects of the Norway Attacks on 22 July 2011
2013 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The Norway attacks on 22 July 2011 were not only one of the most horrific events in modern Norwegian and Scandinavian history but also a critical situation that tested Norwegian society's crisis management capability over a broad and somewhat unforeseen spectrum. Many of the lessons were more or less obvious, others more diffuse and more difficult to translate into reforms. One such area was the lack of warning, which resulted in Norwegian society's crisis management system having to improvise. Was 22 July 2011 one of a series of major intelligence and warning failures? Or was Anders Behring Breivik, in actual fact, an exponent of fundamentally redrawing the security map, where threats no longer allow themselves to be categorized, mapped, and evaluated, but arise from unforeseen societal and individual processes? In this report by the Swedish National Defence College's Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS), Wilhelm Agrell examines the warning dimension in the course of events before and during the terror attacks and discusses the overall, universally applicable conclusions that can be drawn from how questions about threat scenarios and warning are handled. The work on this report is part of the Intelligence Studies Project financed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Wilhelm Agrell is professor of intelligence analysis at Lund University and a visiting professor at the Swedish National Defence College. He has written a number of books on Swedish security policy and intelligence matters, including Essence of Assessment: Methods and Problems of Intelligence Analysis, published by CATS in 2012.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2013. p. 98
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Statsvetenskap med inriktning mot strategi och säkerhetspolitik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4364 (URN)9789186137229 (ISBN)
Note

Översättning av: Agrell, Wilhelm (2013). Den svarta svanen och dess motståndare: förvarningsaspekter på attentaten i Oslo och på Utøya 22 juli 2011. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan

Available from: 2014-01-09 Created: 2014-01-09 Last updated: 2017-08-02Bibliographically approved
Agrell, W. (2012). Essence of Assessment: Methods and Problems of Intelligence Analysis. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essence of Assessment: Methods and Problems of Intelligence Analysis
2012 (English)Book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In some sense, I have written this book to summarize and clarify problems that I have been working on and researching in different ways since the beginning of the 1970s. However, the main aim, and my aspiration, is obviously for the book to contribute to an increasingly more essential awareness of and discussion on the opportunities and problems of analysis methods. The book is aimed at students and those interested with no previous experience or prior knowledge of intelligence as well as those on the analytical treadmill. At its very best, the methodological discussion has this natural universality. Wilhelm Agrell has a twin academic background in history, and in peace and conflict research. Since 2006 he is the first Professor in Intelligence analysis in Sweden. He has written extensively on military R&D, security policy, regional conflicts and the role and transformation of intelligence. He is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences, and of the advisory board to the Swedish Security Service, and Visiting professor at the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the National Defence College. Sir David Omand is Visiting Professor at King's College, London. He was the first UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator, responsible to the Prime Minister for the professional health of the intelligence community, national counter-terrorism strategy and "homeland security". Sir David served for seven years on the Joint Intelligence Committee. He was Permanent Secretary of the Home Office from 1997 to 2000, and before that Director of GCHQ.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2012. p. 207
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Statsvetenskap med inriktning mot strategi och säkerhetspolitik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4367 (URN)9789186137120 (ISBN)
Note

Översättning från svenska till engelska av Simon Moores. Original: Agrell, Wilhelm (2009). Underrättelseanalysens metoder och problem: medan klockan tickar. Malmö: Gleerup 

Available from: 2014-01-09 Created: 2014-01-09 Last updated: 2017-08-03Bibliographically approved
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