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Publications (10 of 32) Show all publications
Liwång, H., Andersson, K., Bang, M., Malmio, I. & Tärnholm, T. (2023). How can systemic perspectives on defence capability development be strengthened?. Defence Studies, 23(3), 399-420
Open this publication in new window or tab >>How can systemic perspectives on defence capability development be strengthened?
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2023 (English)In: Defence Studies, ISSN 1470-2436, E-ISSN 1743-9698, Vol. 23, no 3, p. 399-420Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the last thirty years, suggestions for how to develop defence capability have developed rapidly. However, supporting theory and structured concept development lag behind. Despite this imbalance, countries need to continuously spend resources on defence development. This study identifies central challenges in relation to the scientific perspectives and approaches needed to support the development of defence capability. The results show that the support for developing interactions between technology and social components is especially weak and that relevant supporting theories and methods from related fields are not considered. This study also shows that it is important to be able to address these questions from various perspectives and not to be limited by a specific scientific tradition. Finally, this study also identifies a possible emerging cluster of reports on capability-related research that provide a base for a much-needed cross-disciplinary approach to the development of defence capability.

Keywords
Defence capability development, sociotechnical systems, systems science for defence and security, system of systems
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-11727 (URN)10.1080/14702436.2023.2239722 (DOI)
Available from: 2023-07-30 Created: 2023-07-30 Last updated: 2024-01-04Bibliographically approved
Modig, O. & Andersson, K. (2022). Military Innovation as the Result of Mental Models of Technology. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 5(1), 45-62
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Military Innovation as the Result of Mental Models of Technology
2022 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, E-ISSN 2596-3856, Vol. 5, no 1, p. 45-62Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Heightened political tensions and advances in technological development have prompted Scandinavian countries to increase investment in military research and capability development. The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of why actors sharing similar strategic cultures implement new technology for military purposes differently. The research is founded on a cognitive-psychological perspective comparing two cases of innovation processes: Swedish nuclear weapons development during the Cold War and developments in Swedish cyber defence during the first decades of the 21st century. The main finding is that military innovation is better explained through a consideration of shared mental models of new technology than it is through a consideration of strategic cultures. The analysis shows there are implications for capability development. First, military innovation processes are only initiated if and when new technology appears militarily relevant to an actor; thus, the ability to correctly assess the military relevance of technology at an early stage is crucial. Second, the forming of shared mental models can both contribute to and counteract military innovation and, thus, decision-makers need to be aware both that mental models can be shared and that confirmation bias affects actors on a collective level. Third, it is likely that military innovation processes benefit from mental models being challenged and from diverging mental models being made evident. Consequently, it is good practice, also from this study’s perspective, to diversify and welcome different views on the use of new technology. Further studies are solicited in order to develop practical guidelines.

Keywords
military innovation, technology forecast, military utility, mental model, confirmation bias, strategic culture
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10783 (URN)10.31374/sjms.117 (DOI)
Available from: 2022-04-18 Created: 2022-04-18 Last updated: 2022-04-22Bibliographically approved
Kindström Andersson, K., Andersson, K., Jouannet, C., Amadori, K. & Krus, P. (2022). System of systems lessons to be learned in the development of air power for the future: a small state’s perspective. In: : . Paper presented at AIAA SCITECH 2022 Forum, January 3-7, 2022, San Diego, CA & Virtual.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>System of systems lessons to be learned in the development of air power for the future: a small state’s perspective
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2022 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Sweden, as a small alliance free state with powerful neighbors, has a military history of what we nowadays call systems of systems thinking. Since the beginning of the Cold War thishas been expressed in an air force on the forefront of exploiting military innovations, not least with regard to sensor networks, datalinks, information sharing and distributed decision making. How can this history and the lessons learned come to use when future systems and technologies are to be developed to meet the uncertain future and changing threats? How does this fit with current trends such as capability-based approach and system of systemsengineering methodology? What could this mean for the development of the next generation fighter aircraft - after the Gripen E and contemporary aircraft? These questions have been studied from both a government and industry perspective, following the trend in the defense sector of a more intertwined relationship between the two, necessitated by adopting acapability view on aircraft development. This paper presents preliminary lessons identified from a case study on the project Flygvapnet 2000 (FV2000), which preceded the Net Centric Warfare era at the turn of the millennium. The analysis was based on characteristics of best practice systems of systems engineering derived from a review of literature presenting the methodology theory on capability-based approaches for analyzing, acquiring, developing, and managing military capabilities. The findings from this project will contribute to the development of systems of systems engineering methods and will spur proposals for future research.

Keywords
Capability, Systems of Systems Engineering, SoSE, SE
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10604 (URN)10.2514/6.2022-1471 (DOI)
Conference
AIAA SCITECH 2022 Forum, January 3-7, 2022, San Diego, CA & Virtual
Funder
Vinnova, 2019-02775
Available from: 2022-01-12 Created: 2022-01-12 Last updated: 2023-02-02Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Andersson, K. & Lundmark, M. (2021). Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?. Technology in society, 67, 1-10, Article ID 101736.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?
2021 (English)In: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 67, p. 1-10, article id 101736Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficientalternative to methods such as NATO’s Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of theSwedish Armed Forces’ long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study iswhether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to othersmall to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark’s framework for scienceand technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFTreports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows thatMUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method’s limitations.The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces forchange, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as thesynthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensiveexpertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor’s military capabilities and insubjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021
Keywords
Technology forecasting, Intelligence analysis, Military utility assessment, Future technologies, MUAFT, Military utility
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10299 (URN)10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101736 (DOI)000704511300018 ()
Projects
Värdering av militär nytta
Available from: 2021-09-17 Created: 2021-09-17 Last updated: 2022-05-11Bibliographically approved
Hult, G., Almbladh, T., Andersson, K., Bull, P., Dansarie, M., Granholm, J. & Lagg, E. (2021). Technology Forecast 2021 – Military Utility of Future Technologies. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2021 – Military Utility of Future Technologies
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2021 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2021 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to Systems Science for Defence and Security Division to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

·       Adversarial Machine Learning 

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

·       Living Sensors

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

·       Adversarial Machine Learning

The following technology was assessed to potentially have moderate military utility:

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles 

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility:

·       Living Sensors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2021. p. 45
Keywords
Military technology, forecast, military utility
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10616 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognosTechnology forecast
Available from: 2022-01-14 Created: 2022-01-14 Last updated: 2022-01-17Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2020). Notes on military capability concepts and their relevance for analysis of system characteristics.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Notes on military capability concepts and their relevance for analysis of system characteristics
2020 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A plethora of views, definitions and concepts concerning military capability can cause misunderstandings among scholars and professionals in the defence and security sector, as well as they can confuse the public on important issues. This study captures and describes a few in an effort to increase awareness; Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions, Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL, Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power. The study also highlights their systemic character and guides the reader briefly in matching issues with suitable concepts.

Appendix 1 matches Swedish concepts to those listed in the study.

Publisher
p. 12
Keywords
Capability, Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions, Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL, Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power.
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-9463 (URN)
Available from: 2020-10-05 Created: 2020-10-05 Last updated: 2021-01-14Bibliographically approved
Lundmark, M., Andersson, K., Bull, P. & Dansarie, M. (2019). Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. p. 32
Keywords
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective, teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces, 1129002
Available from: 2019-09-25 Created: 2019-09-25 Last updated: 2020-10-01Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K., Lundmark, M. & Silfverskiöld, S. (2019). The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2019. p. 11
Keywords
MUAFT, Technology Forecast
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8660 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces
Available from: 2019-06-26 Created: 2019-06-26 Last updated: 2021-09-29Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2018). Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective. Systems Engineering, 21(1), 3-15
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective
2018 (English)In: Systems Engineering, ISSN 1098-1241, E-ISSN 1520-6858, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 3-15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study is to propose guidelines for the systems engineering of future stealth combat vehicles using Low Observable Technology (LOT). A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP multirole armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied, butwith lessons extrapolated into recommendations for future development programs. These will have to deal with an increasingly complex sensor threat and a transformed, multilateral, European procurement environment. The main conclusion is that coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements is expected to be particularly challenging. A workflow tailored for requirements analysis in LO combat vehicle programs has, therefore, been derived and is presented here. In addition, themost important enablers for future multilateral development programs involving LOT have been identified as: establishing common best practices, demonstrator programs, an integrated product team approach, and, in line with similar work on combat aircraft, establishing stealth as a key architectural  principle.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2018
Keywords
camouflage, low observable technology, SEP, signature management, stealth, systems engineering
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Systems science for defence and security
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7167 (URN)10.1002/sys.21410 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-01-02 Created: 2018-01-02 Last updated: 2020-11-04Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2018). On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach. (Doctoral dissertation). Helsinki: National Defence University of Finland
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Helsinki: National Defence University of Finland, 2018. p. 185
Series
Series 1: Research Publications No. 21, ISSN 2343-0001 ; 21
Keywords
military utility, survivability, signature management, systems engineering, camouflage, Low Observable Technology, spectral design, multi-spectral
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7349 (URN)9789512529995 (ISBN)9789512529988 (ISBN)
Public defence
2018-04-13, Sverigesalen, Försvarshögskolan, Drottning Kristinas väg 37, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2018-03-21 Created: 2018-03-20 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-6104-5788

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