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Lundmark, M., Andersson, K., Bull, P. & Dansarie, M. (2019). Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. p. 32
Keywords
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective, teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces, 1129002
Available from: 2019-09-25 Created: 2019-09-25 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K., Lundmark, M. & Silfverskiöld, S. (2019). The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2019. p. 11
Keywords
MUAFT, Technology Forecast
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8660 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces
Available from: 2019-06-26 Created: 2019-06-26 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2018). Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective. Systems Engineering, 21(1), 3-15
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective
2018 (English)In: Systems Engineering, ISSN 1098-1241, E-ISSN 1520-6858, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 3-15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study is to propose guidelines for the systems engineering of future stealth combat vehicles using Low Observable Technology (LOT). A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP multirole armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied, butwith lessons extrapolated into recommendations for future development programs. These will have to deal with an increasingly complex sensor threat and a transformed, multilateral, European procurement environment. The main conclusion is that coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements is expected to be particularly challenging. A workflow tailored for requirements analysis in LO combat vehicle programs has, therefore, been derived and is presented here. In addition, themost important enablers for future multilateral development programs involving LOT have been identified as: establishing common best practices, demonstrator programs, an integrated product team approach, and, in line with similar work on combat aircraft, establishing stealth as a key architectural  principle.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2018
Keywords
camouflage, low observable technology, SEP, signature management, stealth, systems engineering
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7167 (URN)10.1002/sys.21410 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-01-02 Created: 2018-01-02 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2018). On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach. (Doctoral dissertation). Helsinki: National Defence University of Finland
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Helsinki: National Defence University of Finland, 2018. p. 185
Series
Series 1: Research Publications No. 21, ISSN 2343-0001 ; 21
Keywords
military utility, survivability, signature management, systems engineering, camouflage, Low Observable Technology, spectral design, multi-spectral
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7349 (URN)9789512529995 (ISBN)9789512529988 (ISBN)
Public defence
2018-04-13, Sverigesalen, Försvarshögskolan, Drottning Kristinas väg 37, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2018-03-21 Created: 2018-03-20 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2017). A Case study report on signature engineering: The SEP multipurpose armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Case study report on signature engineering: The SEP multipurpose armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette
2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The aim of this report is to present consolidated results from case studies of the development processes of the SEP multipurpose armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively.

The report is intended as an annex to a journal article named “Key requirements in the procurement of future Low Observable combat vehicles: A European perspective” published in the journal of Systems Engineering in 2017.

Results filtered from interviews and document reviews are presented based on the structure of the Friedman-Sage framework (Friedman & Sage, 2004) for case studies on systems engineering. Firstly, data collected from the two case studies are presented and then the lessons identified consistent with both cases. The sources, an overview of the two cases studied and the application of the framework are described in the journal article.

Publisher
p. 26
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7081 (URN)
Available from: 2017-10-23 Created: 2017-10-23 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2017). An Exploratory Case Study on Swedish Development of Low Observable Vehicles. In: Krivanek, V. (Ed.), Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT): . Paper presented at 2017 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT) May 31 – June 2, 2017, Brno, Czech Republic (pp. 123-129). Brno: Brno University of Defence
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An Exploratory Case Study on Swedish Development of Low Observable Vehicles
2017 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT) / [ed] Krivanek, V., Brno: Brno University of Defence , 2017, p. 123-129Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP (Armored Multirole Vehicle, in Swedish) and the Visby class corvette cases respectively. The focus was on signature management. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied. The main conclusions can be summarized in three points. 1) A preferred workflow from mission analysis to sub system design has been derived from lessons identified; 2) The three main success factors identified were: building technology demonstrators, having an Integrated Product Team approach, and establishing stealth as a key system design goal; 3) Coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements need further research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Brno: Brno University of Defence, 2017
Keywords
Low Observable Technology, Stealth, Signature, Survivability, Systems Engineering, SEP, Visby class corvette
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6724 (URN)10.1109/MILTECHS.2017.7988743 (DOI)9781538619889 (ISBN)
Conference
2017 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT) May 31 – June 2, 2017, Brno, Czech Republic
Available from: 2017-06-12 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Marcus, C., Andersson, K. & Åkerlind, C. (2017). Balancing the radar and long wavelength infrared signature properties in concept analysis of combat aircraft – A proof of concept. Aerospace Science and Technology, 71, 733-741
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Balancing the radar and long wavelength infrared signature properties in concept analysis of combat aircraft – A proof of concept
2017 (English)In: Aerospace Science and Technology, ISSN 1270-9638, E-ISSN 1626-3219, Vol. 71, p. 733-741Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Designing combat aircraft with high military effectiveness, affordability and military suitability requires balancing the efforts of many engineering disciplines during all phases of the development. One particular challenge is aircraft survivability, the aircraft's ability to avoid or withstand hostile actions. Signature management is one way of increasing the survivability by improving the ability to avoid detection. Here, the long-wave infrared and radar signatures are studied simultaneously in a mission context. By establishing a system of systems approach at mission system level, the risk of sub optimization at a technical level is greatly reduced. A relevant scenario is presented where the aim is to incapacitate an air-defense system using three different tactics: A low-altitude cruise missile option, a low and medium altitude combat aircraft option. The technical sub-models, i.e. the properties of the signatures, the weapons and the sensors are modeled to a level suitable for early concept development. The results from the scenario simulations are useful for a relative comparison of properties. Depending on the situation, first detection is made by either radar or infrared sensors. Although the modeling is basic, the complexity of the infrared signature and detection chain is demonstrated and possible pivot points for the balancing of radar and IR signature requirements are identified. The evaluation methodology can be used for qualitative evaluation of aircraft concepts at different design phases, provided that the technical models are adapted to a suitable level of detail.

Keywords
Radar, Infrared, Signatures, Scenario, Evaluation
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7098 (URN)10.1016/j.ast.2017.10.022 (DOI)000418313700067 ()
Available from: 2017-11-10 Created: 2017-11-10 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K. (2017). Modeling the impact of surface emissivity on the military utility of attack aircraft. Aerospace Science and Technology, 65, 133-140
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling the impact of surface emissivity on the military utility of attack aircraft
2017 (English)In: Aerospace Science and Technology, ISSN 1270-9638, E-ISSN 1626-3219, Vol. 65, p. 133-140Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

An analysis scheme and a mission system model were applied to the evaluation of the military utility of efforts to reduce infrared signature in the conceptual design of survivable aircraft. The purpose is twofold: Firstly, to contribute to the development of a methodological framework for assessing the military utility of spectral design, and secondly to assess the threat from advances in LWIR sensors and their use in surface-to-air-missile systems. The modeling was specifically applied to the problem of linking the emissivity of aircraft coatings to mission accomplishment. The overall results indicate that the analysis scheme and mission system model applied are feasible for assessing the military utility of spectral design and for supporting decision-making in the concept phase. The analysis of different strike options suggests that LWIR sensors will enhance the military utility of low emissive paint, at least for missions executed in clear weather conditions. Furthermore, results corroborate and further clarify the importance of including earthshine when modeling.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keywords
Military utility, Spectral design, Emissivity, Earthshine, Combat aircraft
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6726 (URN)10.1016/j.ast.2017.02.017 (DOI)000398869500013 ()
Available from: 2017-06-12 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Sigholm, J., . . . Sturesson, P. (2017). Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
Show others...
2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2017. p. 27
Keywords
Nanocarbons, Photonic Applications, Post Quantum Cryptography, Internet of things, Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents, Hyperspektral bildanalys
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7034 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognos
Available from: 2017-09-19 Created: 2017-09-19 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K., Kariis, H. & Hult, G. (2015). A systems approach to stealth on the ground revisited. In: Karin U. Stein & Ric H. M. A. Schleijpen (Ed.), Target and Background Signatures: . Paper presented at Target and Background Signatures, 23–24 September 2015, Toulouse, France. SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 9653
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A systems approach to stealth on the ground revisited
2015 (English)In: Target and Background Signatures / [ed] Karin U. Stein & Ric H. M. A. Schleijpen, SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 2015, Vol. 9653Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This new security development is expected to increase interest fromNorthern European states in supporting the development of conceptually newstealthy ground platforms, incorporating a decade of advances in technology andexperiences from stealth platforms at sea and in the air. The scope of thiscase study is to draw experience from where we left off. At the end of the1990s there was growing interest in stealth for combat vehicles in Sweden. Anambitious technology demonstrator project was launched. One of the outcomes wasa proposed Systems Engineering process tailored for signature managementpresented to SPIE in 2002.(Olsson et.al, A systems approach…, Proc. SPIE 4718 )The process was used for the Swedish/BAE Systems Hägglunds AB development of amultirole armored platform (The Swedish acronym is SEP). Before development wascompleted there was a change of procurement policy in Sweden from domesticdevelopment towards Governmental Off-The-Shelf, preceded by a Swedish ArmedForces change of focus from national defense only, towards expeditionarymissions. Lessons learned, of value for future development, are presented. Theyare deduced from interviews of key-personnel, on the procurer and industrysides respectively, and from document reviews.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 2015
Series
SPIE Proceedings, ISSN 0277-786X ; 9653
Keywords
stealth, low observable technology, signature management, camouflage, military utility
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5645 (URN)10.1117/12.2194844 (DOI)
Conference
Target and Background Signatures, 23–24 September 2015, Toulouse, France
Available from: 2015-11-24 Created: 2015-11-24 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-6104-5788

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