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Thielen, A., Sivertun, Å., Hyllengren, P. & Alvinius, A. (2019). Frames of the terrorist attack in Sweden: a qualitative study of true and fake news coverage. International Journal of Emergency Management
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Frames of the terrorist attack in Sweden: a qualitative study of true and fake news coverage
2019 (English)In: International Journal of Emergency Management, ISSN 1471-4825, E-ISSN 1741-5071Article in journal (Refereed) Accepted
Abstract [en]

On 7 April 2017, a terrorist attack occurred in central Stockholm. A hijacked lorry was intentionally driven into crowds along a pedestrian street. The purpose of this study was to qualitatively explore how the media framed this terrorist attack. The data collection approach was inductive and explorative, mainly involving searching electronic media databases. The qualitative analysis of 1294 articles resulted in four overarching themes describing how the terrorist attack was framed in the media. These frames are as follows: the incident, framed as confirmed, unconfirmed and denied information; the perception of leadership and authorities as trustworthy; the site perceived as a place of sorrow; and crisis management framed as the initial and sequential framing of the professionals, the heroes and the villains. The primary conclusion is that true as well as fake news affects crisis management and public opinion, which may create challenges for the entire society within the crisis management area. 

Keywords
terrorist attack; media; fake news; Sweden; crisis management
National Category
Sociology Psychology Political Science Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Ledarskap under påfrestande förhållanden; Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8532 (URN)
Available from: 2019-05-02 Created: 2019-05-02 Last updated: 2019-05-02
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Sigholm, J., . . . Sturesson, P. (2017). Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
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2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2017. p. 27
Keywords
Nanocarbons, Photonic Applications, Post Quantum Cryptography, Internet of things, Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents, Hyperspektral bildanalys
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7034 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognos
Available from: 2017-09-19 Created: 2017-09-19 Last updated: 2017-10-04Bibliographically approved
Pede, E., Sivertun, Å. & Alvinius, A. (2016). The Potential of Proactive Role of Citizens: Geo-information and communication technology in crisis management. In: : . Paper presented at 17th International Symposium on Spatial Data Handling, Beijing, China..
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Potential of Proactive Role of Citizens: Geo-information and communication technology in crisis management
2016 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
National Category
Sociology Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Ledarskap under påfrestande förhållanden; Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7332 (URN)
Conference
17th International Symposium on Spatial Data Handling, Beijing, China.
Available from: 2018-03-13 Created: 2018-03-13 Last updated: 2018-03-26Bibliographically approved
Sivertun, Å. (2015). Geographical Data for Training, Planning and Tactical Implementation. In: Vaclav Krivanek (Ed.), 2015 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT): . Paper presented at ICMT 2015, 19-21 May 2015, University of Defence Brno (pp. 7153707). Piscataway, USA: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Geographical Data for Training, Planning and Tactical Implementation
2015 (English)In: 2015 International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT) / [ed] Vaclav Krivanek, Piscataway, USA: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2015, p. 7153707-Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Tactics are the part of the military problem solving, which attempts to address situations that arise in a concrete context and in a specific geographical area. It is about learning to perceive both the more stable geographical conditions in the working area as well as taking into consideration the effects of climate and weather and how the squad and their systems are affected and how an opponent could try to exploit these conditions and turn them to his advantage. The idea in tactical training is therefore to be able to master both the battlefield environment with its limitations and possibilities and the combat that is conducted there. Friction is used as a concept in several discussions about military activities. The geography with its sometimes channelling terrain and various landscape elements can constitute serious obstacles in trying to carry out all the tasks and abilities expected of a unit. Geography, Climate and Weather can thus be regarded as frictions in a military operation. This should also be possible to train in simulators and systems for war gaming.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Piscataway, USA: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2015
Keywords
Tactical training, War-gaming, GeographicalInformation Systems, Geographical and Climatological frictions in Military operations
National Category
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik; Krigsvetenskap
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5818 (URN)10.1109/MILTECHS.2015.7153707 (DOI)978-8-0723-1976-3 (ISBN)
Conference
ICMT 2015, 19-21 May 2015, University of Defence Brno
Projects
”Utveckling av en taktiksimulator för träning och studium av taktiskt tänkande i markarenan”
Available from: 2016-01-14 Created: 2016-01-14 Last updated: 2018-04-11Bibliographically approved
Ul Hassan Chaudhary, W. & Sivertun, Å. (2015). Object-Based Analysis of Multispectral RS Data and GIS for Detection of Climate Change Impact on the Karakoram Range Northern Pakistan. Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering A, A(4), 303-310
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Object-Based Analysis of Multispectral RS Data and GIS for Detection of Climate Change Impact on the Karakoram Range Northern Pakistan
2015 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering A, ISSN 2162-5298, E-ISSN 2162-5301, Vol. A, no 4, p. 303-310Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Changing climate has a great impact on northern area of Pakistan’s environment and is more prone to environmentalchanges impacts than rest of the country due to its high elevation. However, melting glaciers effect not only the local environmentbut also the whole country with frequent and heavy floods. Remote sensing (RS) from Satellites and Airplanes used in GeographicalInformation Systems (GIS) are technologies that can aid in understanding the on-going environmental processes. Furthermore, helpresearchers to observe, understand, forecast and suggest response to changes that occur. It can be natural disasters or man-madedisasters and human induced factors. Still analysis accuracy issues play a vital role for the formulation of any strategy. To achievebetter results, object based analysis methods have been tested. Various algorithms are developed by the analysts to calculate themagnitude of land cover changes. However, they must be evaluated for each environment that is under observation as mountainousareas. Here were object-based methods evaluated in comparison with pixel based. Landslides, soil moisture, soil permeability, snowcover and vegetation cover can be effectively monitored by those methods.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
David Publishing: , 2015
Keywords
Geographical information systems, spatial data analysis, object-based analysis of remote sensing data, glacier degradation in Karakoram, vegetation and snow cover.
National Category
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5819 (URN)10.17265/2162-5298/2015.06.005 (DOI)
Available from: 2016-01-14 Created: 2016-01-14 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Morales-Simfors, N., Dulanya, Z. & Sivertun, Å. (2015). Structural and Stratigraphic Controls of Malawi's Hotsprings: a Review. In: Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2015 Melbourne, Australia, 19-25 April 2015: . Paper presented at World Geothermal Congress 2015 Melbourne, Australia, 19-25 April 2015. Bochum, Germany: International Geothermal Association
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Structural and Stratigraphic Controls of Malawi's Hotsprings: a Review
2015 (English)In: Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2015 Melbourne, Australia, 19-25 April 2015, Bochum, Germany: International Geothermal Association , 2015Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Active continental divergent zones such as those in the East African Rift System (EARS) hold significant potential for commercially exploitable geothermal resources. Evaluating these zones and characterizing the structural and stratigraphic controls may give insights of the most favourable locations for geothermal activity in a particular area. Due to the geological setting in the western branch of the EARS, several surface manifestations of geothermal energy mostly in the form of hotsprings have been found throughout Malawi. According to our results it seems that there is a strong correlation between the strike of the hotsprings, rock type, regional faulting and the seismic rupture in 2009. However, the country’s full potential has not been evaluated despite these hotspring manifestations throughout this rift segment. Those hotsprings with a high probability of containing easily extractable, commercially viable energy have still to be re-evaluated in order to locate the most favourable areas for geothermal exploration in the area. To achieve this, more local studies are necessary in order to understand better the stratigraphic and structural controls of the hotsprings in the studied area, in order to attract local and international investors. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to give an overview of the geological, structural, geochemical and seismic characteristics in northern Malawi for the exploration of geothermal energy. Once explored, this resource could become crucial in the country’s future development and economy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bochum, Germany: International Geothermal Association, 2015
Series
World Geothermal Congress
Keywords
Malawi, hotsprings, potential, geothermal
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5815 (URN)
Conference
World Geothermal Congress 2015 Melbourne, Australia, 19-25 April 2015
Available from: 2016-01-14 Created: 2016-01-14 Last updated: 2016-05-10Bibliographically approved
Schærström, A., Jørgensen, S. H., Kistemann, T. & Sivertun, Å. (Eds.). (2014). Geography and health: a Nordic outlook. Stockholm: The Swedish National Defence College ; Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet ; Universität Bonn. Institut für Hygiene und Öffentliche Gesundheit
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Geography and health: a Nordic outlook
2014 (English)Collection (editor) (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: The Swedish National Defence College ; Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet ; Universität Bonn. Institut für Hygiene und Öffentliche Gesundheit, 2014
Keywords
Medicinsk geografi, Norden
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5010 (URN)9789186137304 (ISBN)
Available from: 2014-11-27 Created: 2014-11-27 Last updated: 2019-08-01Bibliographically approved
Sivertun, Å., Zöphel, K. & Ahlberg, S. (2014). LiDAR and Hyperspectral data for Landscape and Vegetation Classification and Monitoring. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Ed.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs)June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA: . Paper presented at 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19 2014, San Diego, California, USA (pp. 2172-2179). Manno, Switzerland: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 4
Open this publication in new window or tab >>LiDAR and Hyperspectral data for Landscape and Vegetation Classification and Monitoring
2014 (English)In: Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs)June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA / [ed] Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E., Manno, Switzerland: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society , 2014, Vol. 4, p. 2172-2179Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Mapping of forest areas and other landscapes as to combine information about ground structures, topography as well as other natural and man-made features can be made with help of LiDAR (Elmqvist, M. 2001). The result can be used for planning military and civil missions and analysis of the possibility to drive though areas with bad or no roads (Sivertun & Gumos 2006) as well as for management of natural recourses and for example in physical planning. By combining LiDAR and other remotely sensed data it is possible to make use of the different advantages the different sensors provides. In this article based on a test in Linköping municipality, Sweden, we have employed the LiDAR based SingleTree™ detection model (Ahlberg at al 2008) and hyper spectral image data as to improve the classification of the trees and the ground surface under the trees. This method differs from similar models like in Béland et al. (2014) and Côté et al (2011) that uses terrestrial TLiDAR sensors to identify the species of trees.

By detecting returns of laser beams that passed through the vegetation and are reflected back to the sensor, it is possible to detect ditches, stones, logs and other obstacles to passing through the area. The data from modern LiDAR sensors can have very high spatial resolution, in many cases 50 points/m2 or more. By filtering the LiDAR data it is also possible to detect vehicles and man-made objects that are hidden under the vegetation, especially if the LIDAR uptake is compared with an earlier registration, movements and differences can be detected.

LiDAR registrations are today made by the forest industry in order to obtain better and more accurate information about the vegetation and improve their activities. Observation of the health of plants or trees becomes more important as a consequence from global warming and increased pressure from insects and diseases. There is also an increasing demand on forests and crops as to fill the demands from a growing and partly wealthier world (Kamaruzaman J. and Kasawani I., 2009). In forestry the LiDAR data are used to plan for harvest, building forest roads and timber transports. Another important source of data is Hyper Spectral Scenes (HSS) where the reflected solar light is analysed to identify anomalies in the spectral response and get a hint about the health of the canopy (Hyperspectral Imaging 2011). The difference from using multispectral images in comparison with other remotely sensed data is that the hyper spectral sensor delivers response in several hundred small and well-defined spectral wavelength bands. Those are supposed to indicate the biomass and water content as well as the difference between the absorption and the reflectance band for chlorophyll and many other conditions. A system can be used to identify the spectral signature in a certain area in order to decide what material and colours that should be used for camouflage. The data can be combined with LiDAR and used in the classification of forests, soils and other landscape features in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Modern development of sensors and platforms makes it possible to use for example Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) like helicopters to collect LiDAR and HSS data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Manno, Switzerland: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 2014
Keywords
LiDAR, Hyper spectral data, SingleTree™ detection, Landscape classification and monitoring, GIS
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5405 (URN)978-88-9035-744-2 (ISBN)
Conference
7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19 2014, San Diego, California, USA
Available from: 2015-06-04 Created: 2015-06-04 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Chaudhary, W. U. & Sivertun, Å. (2014). Object-based analysis of Multispectral RS Data and GIS for Detection of Climate Change Impact on the Karakoram Range Northern Pakistan. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Ed.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA: . Paper presented at 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19 2014, San Diego, California, USA (pp. 2036-2043). Manno, Switzerland: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 4
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Object-based analysis of Multispectral RS Data and GIS for Detection of Climate Change Impact on the Karakoram Range Northern Pakistan
2014 (English)In: Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA / [ed] Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E., Manno, Switzerland: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society , 2014, Vol. 4, p. 2036-2043Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Changing climate have a great impact on northern area of Pakistan’s environment and is more prone to environmental changes impacts than rest of the country due to its high elevation. However, the results of melting glaciers effect not only the local environment but also the whole country with frequent and heavy floods. Although recent technological development provided solutions of many problems to mankind, the pace of development in the field of environmental preservation technologies are much slower than needed.

Remote sensing (RS) from Satellites and Airplanes used in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are technologies that can aid in understanding the ongoing environmental processes as it enable us to obtain information about vast area and help researchers to observe, understand, forecast and suggest response to changes that occur.

It can be natural disasters or man-made disasters and human induced factors. Still analysis accuracy issues are there which plays a vital role for the formulation of any strategy. To achieve better results, object based analysis methods have been tested in here. Various algorithms are developed by the analysts to calculate the magnitude of land cover changes but must be evaluated for each environment that is under observation as for example mountainous areas. Here we have tried object-based methods in comparison with pixel based. Landslides, soil moisture, soil permeability, snow cover and vegetation cover that change during certain period of time can, with those methods, be effectively monitored. The findings were in short;

1) Object based analysis shows better accuracy ratio as compared to the pixel based analysis.

2) Slow but gradual depletion of snow/ice cover was confirmed in the study area of Karakoram region, Northern Pakistan.

3) Snow and ice melting catalyses the floods, mudslides, landslides and lake outburst episodes in the area during last two decades could be clearly observed in the analysed images and survey data.

4) Massive landslide/mudslide phenomena was observed in the study area in 2010 and 2012 in Landsat imagery. The artificial lake on the River Hunza was clearly observable in TM and ETM 2010, 2011 and 2012 imagery.

5) Bare soil area increased due to glacial retreat therefore gradual increase in the vegetation can be observed from the year 1992 to 2011.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Manno, Switzerland: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 2014
Keywords
Geographical Information Systems, Spatial Data Analysis, Object-based Analysis of Remote Sensing Data, Glacier Degradation in Karakoram, Vegetation and Snow Cover
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5406 (URN)978-88-9035-744-2 (ISBN)
Conference
7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19 2014, San Diego, California, USA
Available from: 2015-06-04 Created: 2015-06-04 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., . . . Sturesson, P. (2014). Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
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2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

Kinodynamic motion planning

This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

"Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

UCAV

If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2014. p. 29
Keywords
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6292 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-29 Last updated: 2017-06-14Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-7864-2674

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