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Publications (10 of 24) Show all publications
Sigholm, J., Falco, G. & Viswanathan, A. (2019). Enhancing Cybersecurity Education through High-Fidelity Live Exercises (HiFLiX). In: Proceedings of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences: . Paper presented at 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, January 8-11, 2019, Grand Wailea, Maui, USA (pp. 7553-7562). IEEE conference proceedings
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Enhancing Cybersecurity Education through High-Fidelity Live Exercises (HiFLiX)
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE conference proceedings, 2019, p. 7553-7562Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The people responsible for building the IT products and infrastructure of tomorrow – today’s students of the computing disciplines – oftentimes do not have the opportunity or proper motivation to develop cybersecurity skills meeting the needs of the job market. This paper introduces High Fidelity Live eXercises (HiFLiX) a teaching/learning activity designed to expose students to cybersecurity challenges resembling those they could face in a future work environment. We describe a HiFLiX prototype study, conducted as a collaboration between the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s CyberSecurity@CSAIL research group and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Our analysis indicates that the proposed delivery method met the stipulated cybersecurity educational outcomes and increased the motivation for future cybersecurity studies in the majority of participants. Two previously unknown software flaws were also discovered.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE conference proceedings, 2019
Series
Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), ISSN 1530-1605, E-ISSN 2572-6862
Keywords
communication, cooperation, curriculum development, cybersecurity, education, industry academia cooperation, training
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8310 (URN)10125/60193 (DOI)978-0-9981331-2-6 (ISBN)
Conference
52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, January 8-11, 2019, Grand Wailea, Maui, USA
Available from: 2019-01-10 Created: 2019-01-10 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Franke, U., Cohen, M. & Sigholm, J. (2018). What can we learn from enterprise architecture models?: An experiment comparing models and documents for capability development. Software and Systems Modeling, 17(2), 695-711
Open this publication in new window or tab >>What can we learn from enterprise architecture models?: An experiment comparing models and documents for capability development
2018 (English)In: Software and Systems Modeling, ISSN 1619-1366, E-ISSN 1619-1374, Vol. 17, no 2, p. 695-711Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Enterprise architecture (EA) has been established as a discipline to cope with the complex interactions of business operations and technology. Models, i.e., formal descriptions in terms of diagrams and views, are at the heart of the approach. Though it is widely thought that such architecture models can contribute to improved understanding and decision making, this proposition has not rigorously been tested. This article describes an experiment conducted with a real EA model and corresponding real traditional documents, investigating whether the model or the documents lead to better and faster understanding. Understanding is interesting to study, as it is a prerequisite to other EA uses. The subjects (N = 98) were officer cadets, and the experiment was carried out using a comprehensive description of military Close Air Support capability either (1) in the form of a MODAF model or (2) in the form of traditional documents. Based on the results, the model seems to lead to better, though not faster, understanding.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2018
Keywords
enterprise architecture, MODAF, model-based capability development, experiment, models versus documents
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6145 (URN)10.1007/s10270-016-0535-z (DOI)000430548300017 ()
Available from: 2016-06-02 Created: 2016-06-02 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Sigholm, J., . . . Sturesson, P. (2017). Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
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2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2017. p. 27
Keywords
Nanocarbons, Photonic Applications, Post Quantum Cryptography, Internet of things, Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents, Hyperspektral bildanalys
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7034 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognos
Available from: 2017-09-19 Created: 2017-09-19 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Larsson, E. & Sigholm, J. (2016). Papering Over the Cracks: The Effects of Introducing Best Practices on the Web Security Ecosystem. In: The 30th International Conference on Information Networking: ICOIN 2016. Paper presented at 30th International Conference on Information Networking (ICOIN), Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, January 13-15, 2016 (pp. 1-6). IEEE, Article ID 15837791.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Papering Over the Cracks: The Effects of Introducing Best Practices on the Web Security Ecosystem
2016 (English)In: The 30th International Conference on Information Networking: ICOIN 2016, IEEE, 2016, p. 1-6, article id 15837791Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure (HTTPS) is the de facto standard for secure end-to-end web communication. However, numerous flaws discovered during recent years, such as Apple’s “goto fail” bug, and cryptographic weaknesses as illustrated by the Poodlebleed vulnerability, have brought the efficiency of the mostly self-regulated web security market into question. In this cross-disciplinary paper, the authors survey some 160.000 HTTPS-enabled servers among popular web sites over a time period of three years. The research question is what effect the introduction of best practices and vulnerability publication have on web server security in the form of protocol support. Main findings include that (i) insecure configurations, although well known, can remain widespread for over a decade, (ii) the introduction of best practices affect the decline of insecure configurations only moderately, whereas highly publicized security flaws have a significant impact, and (iii) economic incentives for website owners to provide secure services are weak, motivating such other levers of influence as legislation or blocking of noncompliant sites.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2016
Series
International Conference on Information Networking, ISSN 1976-7684
Keywords
Internet governance, network security, security economics, HTTPS
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6685 (URN)10.1109/ICOIN.2016.7427064 (DOI)9781509017256 (ISBN)9781509017249 (ISBN)
Conference
30th International Conference on Information Networking (ICOIN), Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, January 13-15, 2016
Available from: 2017-04-24 Created: 2017-04-24 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Sigholm, J. (2016). Secure Tactical Communications for Inter-Organizational Collaboration: The Role of Emerging Information and Communications Technology, Privacy Issues, and Cyber Threats on the Digital Battlefield. (Doctoral dissertation). Skövde: Högskolan i Skövde (University of Skövde)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Secure Tactical Communications for Inter-Organizational Collaboration: The Role of Emerging Information and Communications Technology, Privacy Issues, and Cyber Threats on the Digital Battlefield
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The development within the area of information and communications technology (ICT) has been rapid during the last couple of decades. Advancements in mobile technology, such as smartphones and other portable devices with embedded sensors, rapid expansion of communications infrastructure, and increased spectrum utilization, has had a major impact on civilian society, but increasingly also on professional organizations such as the Swedish Armed Forces. While this technology allows for enhanced capabilities in the areas of command and control, situational awareness, and information management, it also leads to new challenges in such areas as cyber security and privacy. For armed forces in many parts of the world, being able to deploy in new types of missions, such as humanitarian assistance and response operations due to natural or man-made disasters, is an increasingly sought-after capability. Such operations commonly require collaboration amongst several heterogeneous organizations, which in turn requires technical as well as organizational interoperability. While the actors must be able to share certain information efficiently, with regards to integrity and availability, sensitive or classified information must be safeguarded in terms of confidentiality.

This thesis is concerned with studying emerging ICT for use on the battlefield of tomorrow, investigating how it can lead to more effective operations, and what preconditions that must be met in order for the technology to be of utility for inter-organizational collaboration. In particular, the thesis studies how an acceptable level of information security can be upheld in interconnected tactical communications networks. It is found that Mobile Ad-hoc Networks, Software-Defined Radio and Cognitive Radio are emerging technologies that, while still immature, can contribute to improved capabilities for communications, command and control, and information collection. Furthermore, Hastily Formed Networks is found to be an effective framework for collaboration between heterogeneous actors. However, in order for emerging ICTs to provide military utility, several non-technical requirements must be met. These include usability, trust, legality, cost, and verifying that the technology is in accordance with current military doctrine. Antagonistic as well as unintentional threats must also be mitigated, including information leaks caused by cyberattacks or insiders, and possible consequences of reduced user privacy.

Besides to the Swedish Armed Forces, this thesis should be of interest to armed forces of comparable countries, and for professional organizations faced with similar challenges. Among the drawn conclusions, the thesis recommends continuously evaluating emerging ICT in support of new capabilities, through academic research as well as internal concept development. Adopting an incremental and modular process is also recommended when developing or procuring new ICT systems, instead of making long-term investments in proprietary technology. Furthermore, a focus should be put on promoting military requirements in future civilian ICT standards. In this way development costs can be reduced, while facilitating tactical use of commercial off-the-shelf products. Regarding information security in tactical networks for inter-organizational collaboration the thesis concludes that employing best-effort methods could allow for efficient information exchange between actors, while upholding acceptable risk levels regarding data leakage.

Abstract [sv]

Informations- och kommunikationsteknik (IKT) har under de senaste årtiondena varit under stark utveckling. Ökad tillgänglighet av mobil teknik, såsom smarta mobiltelefoner och andra bärbara enheter med inbyggda sensorer, kraftig utbyggnad av kommunikationsinfrastruktur samt framsteg inom spektrumeffektivitet, har haft en stor betydelse för civilsamhället samt i ökande grad även för insatsorganisationer såsom Försvarsmakten. Tekniken bidrar till ökad förmåga till ledning, situationsuppfattning och informationshantering, men medför samtidigt flera utmaningar inom områden som cybersäkerhet och personlig integritet. Nya uppgifter som parallellt kommit i fokus för försvarsmakter i många länder inkluderar förmågan att kunna delta i stödjande insatser i samband med naturkatastrofer, terrorattacker, eller att kunna erbjuda humanitärt bistånd i internationella miljöer. Sådana insatser kräver vanligtvis samverkan mellan många olika heterogena organisationer, vilket medför ett behov av såväl teknisk som organisatorisk interoperabilitet. Viss information måste kunna delas effektivt mellan de ingående aktörerna med avseende på riktighet och tillgänglighet, samtidigt som känsliga uppgifter måste skyddas avseende sekretess.

I denna avhandling studeras taktiskt användande av framväxande IKT på morgondagens slagfält, hur tekniken kan bidra till mer effektiva operationer, samt vilka förutsättningar och krav som måste uppfyllas för att tekniken ska kunna vara till nytta vid interorganisatorisk samverkan. Särskilt undersöks möjligheten att upprätthålla en acceptabel nivå av informationssäkerhet i gemensamma taktiska sambandssystem, samtidigt som dessa kan användas effektivt under påfrestande förhållanden. Avhandlingen finner att tekniker som mobila ad hoc-nätverk, mjukvarudefinierad radio och kognitiv radio, trots att de ännu är omogna, kan komma att bidra till förbättrade eller helt nya förmågor inom bland annat samband, ledning och informationsinhämtning. Vidare dras slutsatsen att ramverket Hastily Formed Networks är effektivt för samverkan mellan heterogena aktörer. För att framväxande IKT ska kunna vara av militär nytta krävs dock att flera icke-tekniska krav kan mötas. Dessa inkluderar användbarhet, tillit, legalitet, kostnad, samt att tekniken ligger i linje med rådande militär doktrin. Såväl antagonistiska som oavsiktliga hot måste samtidigt hanteras, såsom informationsläckor orsakade av cyberattacker eller insiders, samt konsekvensen av en minskad personlig integritet för användarna.

Avhandlingen förväntas vara av intresse för såväl Försvarsmakten som organisationer med liknande förutsättningar i Sverige och jämförbara länder. Som slutsats rekommenderas i avhandlingen att framväxande IKT till stöd för nya förmågor kontinuerligt utvärderas genom såväl akademisk forskning som intern konceptutveckling, samt att en inkrementell och modulär modell bör väljas vid utveckling och anskaffning, snarare än att göra omfattande investeringar i proprietär teknik. Fokus bör även vara på att tidigt få med militära krav i civila IKT-standarder. På så vis kan utvecklingskostnader reduceras, samtidigt som militär användning av kommersiellt tillgängliga produkter förenklas. En slutsats gällande informationssäkerhet är att man med metoder som baseras på så kallad ”best-effort” kan effektivisera utbytet i ett gemensamt informationssystem, samtidigt som risken för dataläckage kan behållas på en acceptabel nivå.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Skövde: Högskolan i Skövde (University of Skövde), 2016. p. 74
Series
Dissertation Series ; 13
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6326 (URN)978-91-982690-3-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-11-11, Sverigesalen, Drottning Kristinas väg 37, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-10-19 Created: 2016-10-19 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Bull, P., Persson, B., Thunqvist, O., . . . Sturesson, P. (2016). Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division
Show others...
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

 Multi robot systems

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

 Over-the-Horizon Radar

 Space-based imaging radar

The following technology was found to have negligible military utility.

 Moving Target Defence

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

 Software-Defined Networking

 Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.

As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2016. p. 40
Keywords
militär nytta, teknisk prognos, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6298 (URN)
Note

Innehåller kapitel på svenska

Available from: 2016-08-30 Created: 2016-08-30 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silvferskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., Persson, B., . . . Bang, M. (2015). Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University
Show others...
2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

3D Printers

Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

Deep Learning

The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

Nanothermites

We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

Unmanned Surface Vessels

USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

Structural Health Monitoring

Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2015. p. 26
Keywords
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6296 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-29 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Sigholm, J. (2014). Cyber Security in Tactical Network Infrastructure for Command and Control. In: T. J. Grant, R. H. P. Janssen, H. Monsuur (Ed.), Network Topology in Command and Control: Organization, Operation, and Evolution (pp. 241-269). Hershey, PA: IGI Global
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Cyber Security in Tactical Network Infrastructure for Command and Control
2014 (English)In: Network Topology in Command and Control: Organization, Operation, and Evolution / [ed] T. J. Grant, R. H. P. Janssen, H. Monsuur, Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2014, p. 241-269Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Emerging information and communications technology has had significant importance for military operations during the last decades. Development within such technology areas as sensors, computers, and wireless communications has allowed for faster and more efficient collection, transmission, storage, processing, analysis, and distribution of data. This has led to new and improved military capabilities within command and control, intelligence, targeting, and logistics. However, the increased complexity and interdependencies of networked systems, the continuously growing amounts of data, changing non-technical requirements, and evolving adversary threats makes upholding cyber security in command and control systems a challenging task. Although some best-practice approaches have been developed, finding good solutions for protecting critical infrastructure and important information assets is still an open research question requiring an interdisciplinary approach. This chapter describes recent developments within emerging network technology for command and control, and suggests focus areas where further research is needed in order to attain sufficient operational effect from the employed systems. While a gradual and evolutionary progress of military cyber security has been seen, a long-term commitment is required within such areas as procurement, standardization, training, doctrinal, and legal development, in order to achieve military utility of command and control systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2014
Keywords
Advanced Persistent Threat, Cyber Security, Cyber war, Cyber-attacks, Cyber-physical systems, Cyberspace operations, Hastily Formed Network, Reconfigurable Radio System
National Category
Human Aspects of ICT
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4828 (URN)10.4018/978-1-4666-6058-8 (DOI)978-14-6666-058-8 (ISBN)14-6666-058-9 (ISBN)
Available from: 2014-07-07 Created: 2014-07-07 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Sigholm, J. & Larsson, E. (2014). Determining the Utility of Cyber Vulnerability Implantation: The Heartbleed Bug as a Cyber Operation. In: Military Communications Conference (MILCOM), 2014 IEEE: . Paper presented at Military Communications Conference (MILCOM), 2014 IEEE, Baltimore, MD, USA, 6-8 October 2014 (pp. 110-116). IEEE conference proceedings
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Determining the Utility of Cyber Vulnerability Implantation: The Heartbleed Bug as a Cyber Operation
2014 (English)In: Military Communications Conference (MILCOM), 2014 IEEE, IEEE conference proceedings, 2014, p. 110-116Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Flaws in computer software or hardware that are as yet unknown to the public, known as zero-day vulnerabilities, are an increasingly sought-after resource by actors conducting cyber operations. While the objective pursued is commonly defensive, as in protecting own systems and networks, cyber operations may also involve exploiting identified vulnerabilities for intelligence collection or to produce military effects. The weapon zing and stockpiling of such vulnerabilities by various actors, or even the intentional implantation into cyberspace infrastructure, is a trend that currently resembles an arms race. An open question is how to measure the utility that access to these exploitable vulnerabilities provides for military purposes, and how to contrast and compare this to the possible adverse societal consequences that withholding disclosure of them may result in, such as loss of privacy or impeded freedom of the press. This paper presents a case study focusing on the Heart bleed bug, used as a tool in an offensive cyber operation. We introduce a model to estimate the adoption rate of an implanted flaw in Open SSL, derived by fitting collected real-world data. Our calculations show that reaching a global adoption of at least 50 % would take approximately three years from the time of release, given that the vulnerability remains undiscovered, while surpassing 75 % adoption would take an estimated four years. The paper concludes that while exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities may indeed be of significant military utility, such operations take time. They may also incur non-negligible risks of collateral damage and other societal costs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE conference proceedings, 2014
Series
MILCOM IEEE Military Communications Conference, ISSN 2155-7578 ; 6-8 Oct. 2014
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5011 (URN)10.1109/MILCOM.2014.25 (DOI)
Conference
Military Communications Conference (MILCOM), 2014 IEEE, Baltimore, MD, USA, 6-8 October 2014
Available from: 2014-11-27 Created: 2014-11-27 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., . . . Sturesson, P. (2014). Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
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2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

Kinodynamic motion planning

This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

"Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

UCAV

If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2014. p. 29
Keywords
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6292 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-29 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-4376-9800

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