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Bull, Peter
Publications (10 of 18) Show all publications
Lundmark, M., Andersson, K., Bull, P. & Dansarie, M. (2019). Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. p. 32
Keywords
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective, teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Armed Forces, 1129002
Available from: 2019-09-25 Created: 2019-09-25 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Sigholm, J., . . . Sturesson, P. (2017). Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
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2017 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2017. p. 27
Keywords
Nanocarbons, Photonic Applications, Post Quantum Cryptography, Internet of things, Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents, Hyperspektral bildanalys
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7034 (URN)
Projects
Teknisk prognos
Available from: 2017-09-19 Created: 2017-09-19 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Persson, B. & Bull, P. (2016). Empirical Study of Flight-Dynamic Influences on Radar Cross-Section Models. Journal of Aircraft, 53(2), 463-474
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Empirical Study of Flight-Dynamic Influences on Radar Cross-Section Models
2016 (English)In: Journal of Aircraft, ISSN 0021-8669, E-ISSN 1533-3868, Vol. 53, no 2, p. 463-474Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this work, measurements and a method for analyzing flight-dynamic effects on radar cross-section models for aircraft are presented. Flight-dynamic effects need to be considered when designing combat aircraft and creating target models for radar simulators. The work is based on flight data from three different types of aircraft: Piper PA-28 Archer II, Boeing 737, and Saab JAS 39 Gripen. Using inertial navigation and global-positioning systems, the motions of the three aircraft are recorded in flight. From the data, aspect angles toward a radar station located in the extension of the intended flight path are generated using a simulator. It is found that the major contribution to perturbations in aspect angles is due to the rotational degrees of freedom and that bivariate normal distributions are a good candidate for approximating the uncertainty in aspect angles for all three aircraft types. It is also found that each rotational degree of freedom is close to a normal distribution but that the parameter values of the distribution vary with altitude and aircraft type.

National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6082 (URN)10.2514/1.C033566 (DOI)000373945100016 ()
Available from: 2016-04-13 Created: 2016-04-13 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Bull, P., Persson, B., Thunqvist, O., . . . Sturesson, P. (2016). Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division
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2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

 Multi robot systems

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

 Over-the-Horizon Radar

 Space-based imaging radar

The following technology was found to have negligible military utility.

 Moving Target Defence

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

 Software-Defined Networking

 Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.

As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2016. p. 40
Keywords
militär nytta, teknisk prognos, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6298 (URN)
Note

Innehåller kapitel på svenska

Available from: 2016-08-30 Created: 2016-08-30 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Silvferskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., Persson, B., . . . Bang, M. (2015). Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University
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2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

3D Printers

Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

Deep Learning

The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

Nanothermites

We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

Unmanned Surface Vessels

USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

Structural Health Monitoring

Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2015. p. 26
Keywords
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6296 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-29 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., . . . Sturesson, P. (2014). Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
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2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

Kinodynamic motion planning

This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

"Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

UCAV

If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2014. p. 29
Keywords
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6292 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-29 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Axberg, S., Andersson, K., Bang, M., Bruzelius, N., Bull, P., Eliasson, P., . . . Vretblad, B. (2013). Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9: Teori och metod (1ed.). Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9: Teori och metod
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2013 (Swedish)Book (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2013. p. 146 Edition: 1
Series
Lärobok i militärteknik, ISSN 1654-4838 ; 9
Keywords
militärteknik, militär nytta, risk, system, militär förmåga, teknikens inverkan
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4381 (URN)9789186137236 (ISBN)
Available from: 2014-01-10 Created: 2014-01-10 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Silfverskiöld, S., Andersson, K., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Jensen, E., . . . Sturesson, P. (2013). Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
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2013 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

  • Alternative fuels
  • High altitude platforms
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • Cyber Defence
  • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

  • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

  • Walking machines

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2013. p. 38
Keywords
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6291 (URN)
Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-29 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
Bull, P., Ögren, P., Grahn, P., Hillerström, G., Johansson, P., Jändel, M., . . . Ulvklo, M. (2012). Förstudie obemannade farkoster. Stockholm: Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Förstudie obemannade farkoster
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2012 (Swedish)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [sv]

Obemannade farkoster används allt oftare, och i allt fler roller, i dagens kon- flikter. Denna rapport ger en bred överblick över området militära obemannade farkoster, samt rekommendationer för inriktningen av framtida FoU-satsningar inom området.

Överblicken över området har fokus på både system, förmågor och verksam- heter som är relevanta för Försvarsmakten. Genom att låta de insatsförmågor som definieras i FMUP (Försvarsmaktens utvecklingsplan) gå som en röd tråd genom rapporten, både när specifika system diskuteras och när möjliga scena- rier där obemannade farkoster kan vara till nytta beskrivs, har vi försökt hålla både bredd och relevans i dokumentet.

Rekommendationerna vilar på en genomgång av de inriktningsdokument som producerats i Försvarsmakten, t.ex. Perspektivplanneringen och FMUP, besök vid de enheter som dagligen använder obemannade farkoster, UAV-enheten i Karlsborg och Swedec i Eksjö, samt den områdesöverblick som nämns ovan. Slutsatserna är att den effektivaste kompetensuppbyggnaden och kunskapsöver- föringen fås om man skapar breda tvärvetenskapliga projekt inom respektive systemkategori (UAV, UGV, etc) med nära kontakter till materielförsörjnings- processen och perspektivplaneringen. Dessa kan samla kompetensen inom FHS och FOI, övervaka forskningsfronten genom att bevaka tävlingar, konferenser samt delta i internationella samarbeten, samt överföra det samlade resultaten till Försvarsmakten genom demonstrationer av verkliga eller simulerade delsy- stem och interaktiva simuleringar av hela system. Just systemsimuleringar kan göras särskilt realistiska, eftersom interaktionen med de riktiga obemannade systemen till stor del sker igenom kontrollstationernas datorer. På så sätt ska- pas en känsla för både hot och möjligheter med de nya systemen, vilket gagnar både taktikutveckling och materielprocesser.

Abstract [en]

Unmanned vehicles are being used in many conflicts around the world today. This report gives a broad overview of the field of unmanned vehicles, and includes suggestions of how a future research activity within the field might look like.

The overview is focussed on both systems and capabilities, as well as activities that are relevant for the Swedish Armed forces. By applying the capability areas defined in the armed forced development plan (FMUP) to both commercial systems and possible scenarios, we strive to limit the scope of the report to the most relevant topics.

The recommendations are based upon a review of the development documents of the Swedish Armed Forces, as well as visits to units operating unmanned systems today, and the overview described above. The suggestions are as fol- lows. Broad, cross-disciplinary projects focussing on system types, e.g. UAV, UGV etc, should be formed. These should be interacting with the procure- ment process, and different level of planning activities. They should also bring together competencies across FHS and FOI, survey current research state-of- the-art, through competitions, conferences and collaborations, and transfer the results to the armed forces through demonstrations and simulations of sys- tems and subsystems. Simulations in particular are well suited to illustrate the benefits and drawbacks of a particular unmanned systems, as the interaction with such systems is mostly carried out through the computers of the control stations, even for the real systems. In this way, participants from the armed forces can get a feeling for both threats and possibilities associated with the different future and contemporary systems, which will be of use to both tactic development and procurement activities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut, 2012. p. 121
Series
FOI-R, ISSN 1650-1942 ; 3319
Keywords
Unmanned vehicle, Robotics, UAV, UGV, AUV, ASV, Obemannade farkoster, robotar
National Category
Vehicle Engineering
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2954 (URN)
Available from: 2012-12-06 Created: 2012-12-03 Last updated: 2019-08-26Bibliographically approved
Andersson, K., Bull, P., Löfgren, L., Mölleryd, B., Silfverskiöld, S. & Sivertun, Å. (2012). Technology Forecast 2012: Military utility of ten technologies: a report from seminars at the SNDC Department of Military Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technology Forecast 2012: Military utility of ten technologies: a report from seminars at the SNDC Department of Military Technology
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2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.

The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;

  • Augmented Reality

  • Nano air vehicles
  • Solid State Laser weapons

In the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.

Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.

In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect 

vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;

  • Metamaterial cloaking

  • Electromagnetic gun

  • Small satellites
  • Ultra-violet communication

Metamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.

The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.

The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.

Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. 

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;

  • Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)

  • Automated behaviour Analysis
  • Evolutionary Robotics

Biomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.

Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.

Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.

Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2012. p. 75
Keywords
militär nytta, teknisk prognos, omvärldsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Military Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4531 (URN)
Available from: 2014-03-27 Created: 2014-03-27 Last updated: 2019-11-07Bibliographically approved
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