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Hult, Gunnar, Professor
Publikationer (10 of 15) Visa alla publikationer
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Sigholm, J., . . . Sturesson, P. (2017). Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
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2017 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

- Nanocarbons for photonic applications

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

- Internet of things (IoT)

- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

- Post-quantum cryptography

- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2017. s. 27
Nyckelord
Nanocarbons, Photonic Applications, Post Quantum Cryptography, Internet of things, Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents, Hyperspektral bildanalys
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan samhällsvetenskap Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7034 (URN)
Projekt
Teknisk prognos
Tillgänglig från: 2017-09-19 Skapad: 2017-09-19 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Silfverskiöld, S., Liwång, H., Hult, G., Bull, P., Persson, B., Thunqvist, O., . . . Sturesson, P. (2016). Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies: a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division
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2016 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

 Multi robot systems

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;

 Over-the-Horizon Radar

 Space-based imaging radar

The following technology was found to have negligible military utility.

 Moving Target Defence

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;

 Software-Defined Networking

 Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.

As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2016. s. 40
Nyckelord
militär nytta, teknisk prognos, omvärldsanalys
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6298 (URN)
Anmärkning

Innehåller kapitel på svenska

Tillgänglig från: 2016-08-30 Skapad: 2016-08-30 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Hult, G. (2015). A small-state perspective on technology and warfare (1ed.). In: Gudrun Persson, Carolina Vendil Pallin, Tommy Jeppsson (Ed.), Military thinking in the 21st century: (pp. 247-261). Stockholm: Krigsvetenskapsakademien
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A small-state perspective on technology and warfare
2015 (Engelska)Ingår i: Military thinking in the 21st century / [ed] Gudrun Persson, Carolina Vendil Pallin, Tommy Jeppsson, Stockholm: Krigsvetenskapsakademien , 2015, 1, s. 247-261Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Krigsvetenskapsakademien, 2015 Upplaga: 1
Nationell ämneskategori
Statsvetenskap
Forskningsämne
Statsvetenskap med inriktning mot strategi och säkerhetspolitik; Krigsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5397 (URN)9789198087864 (ISBN)
Projekt
War science in the 21st century
Forskningsfinansiär
Marianne och Marcus Wallenbergs Stiftelse
Tillgänglig från: 2015-05-26 Skapad: 2015-05-26 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-08-02Bibliografiskt granskad
Andersson, K., Kariis, H. & Hult, G. (2015). A systems approach to stealth on the ground revisited. In: Karin U. Stein & Ric H. M. A. Schleijpen (Ed.), Target and Background Signatures: . Paper presented at Target and Background Signatures, 23–24 September 2015, Toulouse, France. SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 9653
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A systems approach to stealth on the ground revisited
2015 (Engelska)Ingår i: Target and Background Signatures / [ed] Karin U. Stein & Ric H. M. A. Schleijpen, SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 2015, Vol. 9653Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

This new security development is expected to increase interest fromNorthern European states in supporting the development of conceptually newstealthy ground platforms, incorporating a decade of advances in technology andexperiences from stealth platforms at sea and in the air. The scope of thiscase study is to draw experience from where we left off. At the end of the1990s there was growing interest in stealth for combat vehicles in Sweden. Anambitious technology demonstrator project was launched. One of the outcomes wasa proposed Systems Engineering process tailored for signature managementpresented to SPIE in 2002.(Olsson et.al, A systems approach…, Proc. SPIE 4718 )The process was used for the Swedish/BAE Systems Hägglunds AB development of amultirole armored platform (The Swedish acronym is SEP). Before development wascompleted there was a change of procurement policy in Sweden from domesticdevelopment towards Governmental Off-The-Shelf, preceded by a Swedish ArmedForces change of focus from national defense only, towards expeditionarymissions. Lessons learned, of value for future development, are presented. Theyare deduced from interviews of key-personnel, on the procurer and industrysides respectively, and from document reviews.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
SPIE - International Society for Optical Engineering, 2015
Serie
SPIE Proceedings, ISSN 0277-786X ; 9653
Nyckelord
stealth, low observable technology, signature management, camouflage, military utility
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5645 (URN)10.1117/12.2194844 (DOI)
Konferens
Target and Background Signatures, 23–24 September 2015, Toulouse, France
Tillgänglig från: 2015-11-24 Skapad: 2015-11-24 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Andersson, K., Bang, M., Marcus, C., Persson, B., Sturesson, P., Jensen, E. & Hult, G. (2015). Military utility: A proposed concept to support decision-making. Technology in society, 43, 23-32
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Military utility: A proposed concept to support decision-making
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2015 (Engelska)Ingår i: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 43, s. 23-32Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.

Nyckelord
Technology, utility, decision-making
Nationell ämneskategori
Maskinteknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5548 (URN)10.1016/j.techsoc.2015.07.001 (DOI)000215364900003 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2015-08-03 Skapad: 2015-08-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Silvferskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., Persson, B., . . . Bang, M. (2015). Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2015, Military Utility of Five Technologies: a report from seminars at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University
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2015 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040 from a Swedish Armed Forces’ (SwAF) perspective.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology based on its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, according to identified relevant scenarios. It should be noted that the military utility of the technology in this report is assessed solely in the presented scenario, not for the technology in any other scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

After the seminars, the technologies were grouped into three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put into the two other classes, and not because a high technology readiness level (TRL) will not be reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

3D Printers

Our overall assessment is that 3D printing has significant potential for military utility, possibly disruptive. Logistic concepts for both national and expeditionary missions will be affected in the 2040 time frame. The technology development will be driven by civilian industry, but a SwAF in-depth study is recommended as it could help form potential logistic concepts and determine what methods and systems are suitable for military adoption and what kind of application-specific issues have to be addressed in order to take full advantage of the new technology.

Deep Learning

The military utility for deep learning is assessed to be significant, primarily regarding SIGINT and IMINT, which is where the greatest utility can be seen. The driving force as regards research in the field is the private sector. We therefore recommend that the SwAF follow the research conducted and focus studies on how and where deep learning can be implemented within the organization.

Nanothermites

We suggest that a deeper study into the feasibility of nanothermite munitions and their possible military utility is carried out, since they are assessed to have a potential for significant military utility. Some of the remaining challenges include resolving risks and uncertainties pertaining to health, legality and material development. We also suggest that nanothermites should be incorporated as a future area of interest within the SwAF R&D projects.

Unmanned Surface Vessels

USV could be used for many tasks that are dull, difficult and dangerous. If employed to search for submarines they are expected to lower the cost of personnel, enhance the readiness level and increase the probability of finding hostile submarines. Therefore, we assess that USV have potential for significant military utility. The effectiveness of USV for the SwAF will depend greatly on how the platforms are incorporated into the organization. Research on how to use the USV tactically will likely be imperative if the technology is to reach its full potential. We recommended that the SwAF should follow the development and pursue research on USV before acquiring own platforms.

Structural Health Monitoring

Structural health monitoring is a key part when utilizing kinodynamic motion planning in automated and autonomous systems; therefore it will affect the capability of all systems that rely on kinodynamic motion planning. This technology has the capacity to enhance the capabilities of automatic and autonomous systems. Therefore, our assessment is that structural health monitoring has significant potential for military utility

No technology was assessed to have uncertain or negligible military utility.

The result of our technology forecast is different from previous years since all the technologies were assessed to have significant potential for military utility. The reason for this is assumed to be because these technologies have been selected by a board of experts from the SwAF and the Defence Materiel Administration, (FMV), as well as from a number of interesting, potentially disruptive technologies proposed by the Fraunhofer Institute. Furthermore, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that all technologies in this report will reach high TRL levels, mostly 8 and 9 by 2035.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one scenario that was assumed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT analysis, an assessment of the capability impact was made. An improvement this year is that the footprint table has been adjusted to the one used by NORDEFCO, presenting the assessed contribution to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability). Furthermore, the demands that are expected to be put on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology were indicated. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of each technology were drawn. We believe that this information could be used as decision support for future R&D investments.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition of the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF within identified relevant scenarios and is the same as used in the Technology Forecast of 2013 and 2014. This definition is believed to be good enough for this

report but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in-depth presents our concept of military utility has recently been published.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased because of the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technologies and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed potential military utility of the five technologies within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. Any additional results found in the analysis are mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and not least the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. However, the report on Unmanned Surface Vessels was found to have a somewhat lower quality than the other reports, for instance, some parts of the text are copied and pasted from last year’s report on UCAV and some parts of the assessments are missing, e.g. in the TRL evaluation. Nonetheless, the reports are in line with our task of evaluating the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2015. s. 26
Nyckelord
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6296 (URN)
Tillgänglig från: 2016-08-29 Skapad: 2016-08-29 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Hult, G. (2014). Arms Acquisition: Why is it So Difficult?. In: : . Paper presented at VIII Encontro Nacional da ABED: Defesa e Seguranca do Atlantico Sul. Brasilia 8-10 september, 2014.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Arms Acquisition: Why is it So Difficult?
2014 (Engelska)Konferensbidrag, Enbart muntlig presentation (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

There are several examples of failed arms acquisition programs, where costs have been underestimated, and unproven technology misunderstood.

Arms acquisition programs seem to suffer from particular difficulties, judging from the results obtained. This is not only a U.S., and to some extent U.K., phenomenon, although the debate is by far most active in those two nations. The problems express themselves as cost overruns, delayed deliveries, and fundamental, sometimes insoluble, technical challenges. The term “acquisition” is here used for the complete life cycle process of a system, covering concept generation, design phase, prototypes, volume production, operational use, various upgrades, and disposal. The problems are typically, but not always, encountered in the design phase.

Is military acquisition inherently more difficult than similar programs in non-military business areas? The fact that these programs are usually paid for by public money, that large sums of money are involved, and that programs often are not competed, all contribute to making these programs much more prone to extensive media coverage, in particular concerning any failures, compared to similar big-money, high-tech programs in the private sector.

In this paper we will examine the technologies involved and their sometimes extraordinary pace of development, some inherent difficulties with big military programs, the fundamental difficulties with cross-border collaboration and the funding challenges in times of austerity, and we will propose some remedies.2We believe that the conclusions of this paper are relevant e.g. for the ongoing negotiations for Sweden-Brazil military cooperation and arms acquisition.

Nyckelord
Development, acquisition, defence economy
Nationell ämneskategori
Teknik och teknologier
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4875 (URN)
Konferens
VIII Encontro Nacional da ABED: Defesa e Seguranca do Atlantico Sul. Brasilia 8-10 september, 2014
Tillgänglig från: 2014-09-18 Skapad: 2014-09-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Silfverskiöld, S., Bull, P., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Hagenbo, M., Andersson, K., . . . Sturesson, P. (2014). Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies: A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
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2014 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

Kinodynamic motion planning

This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.

Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces

"Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.

UCAV

If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

Bulk metallic glass (BMG)

If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.

None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2014. s. 29
Nyckelord
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6292 (URN)
Tillgänglig från: 2016-08-29 Skapad: 2016-08-29 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Axberg, S., Andersson, K., Bang, M., Bruzelius, N., Bull, P., Eliasson, P., . . . Vretblad, B. (2013). Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9: Teori och metod (1ed.). Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Lärobok i Militärteknik, vol. 9: Teori och metod
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2013 (Svenska)Bok (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [sv]

Ämnet militärteknik utgår från att tekniska system är officerens arbetsredskap och att en förståelse för och kunskap om dessa verktyg är central för att kunna utöva professionen framgångsrikt. Denna nionde volym av Lärobok i Militärteknik, benämnd Teori och Metod, behandlar centrala begrepp, teorier och postulat samt metoder för värdering av teknik och består av ett antal texter författade av 16 forskare och lärare vid den militärtekniska avdelningen. Volymen riktar sig främst till de som inlett sin officersutbildning och utgörs till stora delar av ett kompilat av publicerade och opublicerade militärtekniska texter och kan sägas utgöra militärteknikens ”state of the art”.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2013. s. 146 Upplaga: 1
Serie
Lärobok i militärteknik, ISSN 1654-4838 ; 9
Nyckelord
militärteknik, militär nytta, risk, system, militär förmåga, teknikens inverkan
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik Övrig annan samhällsvetenskap
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4381 (URN)9789186137236 (ISBN)
Tillgänglig från: 2014-01-10 Skapad: 2014-01-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
Silfverskiöld, S., Andersson, K., Hult, G., Sivertun, Å., Bull, P., Jensen, E., . . . Sturesson, P. (2013). Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies: a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
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2013 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.

We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.

The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;

  • Alternative fuels
  • High altitude platforms
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • Cyber Defence
  • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;

  • The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form

The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;

  • Walking machines

The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.

We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2013. s. 38
Nyckelord
teknisk prognos, militär nytta, omvärldsanalys
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6291 (URN)
Tillgänglig från: 2016-08-29 Skapad: 2016-08-29 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-26Bibliografiskt granskad
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