Logotyp: till Försvarshögskolans hemsida

fhs.se
Ändra sökning
Länk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Publikationer (10 of 33) Visa alla publikationer
Andersson, K., Lundberg, J. & Stirna, J. (2023). Emerging technology calls for a systemic view on military capability. In: Geert Poels; Jonas Van Riel; Rodrigo Fernandes Calhau (Ed.), 1st International Workshop on the Foundations and Applications of Capabilities in Enterprises, Transformations, and ESG Initiatives (FACETE 2023), Aachen, 2023: . Paper presented at 1st International Workshop on the Foundations and Applications of Capabilities in Enterprises, Transformations, and ESG Initiatives (FACETE 2023), November 29 - December 1, 2023, Vienna, Austria. Aachen, 3645, Article ID facete2.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Emerging technology calls for a systemic view on military capability
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: 1st International Workshop on the Foundations and Applications of Capabilities in Enterprises, Transformations, and ESG Initiatives (FACETE 2023), Aachen, 2023 / [ed] Geert Poels; Jonas Van Riel; Rodrigo Fernandes Calhau, Aachen, 2023, Vol. 3645, artikel-id facete2Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [sv]

Many nations are developing their military towards so-called Multi-Domain Operations with artificialintelligence (AI) as a pivotal component, despite identified challenges. Modern-day military operationsunderscore the need for updated battle management and cross-domain communication, central to theprinciples of Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). AI's potential is obvious, and whileautonomous platforms revolutionize warfare, they introduce complexities in command and control (C2),which is also reflected in capability development. This study identifies suitable concepts for systemicanalysis of military capability and is the starting point in forming a framework for C2 capability developmentin the context depicted. A number of concepts are identified; Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions,Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL,Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power. The study alsohighlights their systemic character and guides the reader briefly in matching issues with suitable concepts.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Aachen: , 2023
Serie
CEUR Workshop Proceedings, E-ISSN 1613-0073
Nyckelord
Capability, defence, socio-technical system
Nationell ämneskategori
Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12287 (URN)
Konferens
1st International Workshop on the Foundations and Applications of Capabilities in Enterprises, Transformations, and ESG Initiatives (FACETE 2023), November 29 - December 1, 2023, Vienna, Austria
Forskningsfinansiär
FörsvarshögskolanFörsvarsmaktenStockholms universitet
Tillgänglig från: 2024-02-28 Skapad: 2024-02-28 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-04-05Bibliografiskt granskad
Liwång, H., Andersson, K., Bang, M., Malmio, I. & Tärnholm, T. (2023). How can systemic perspectives on defence capability development be strengthened?. Defence Studies, 23(3), 399-420
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>How can systemic perspectives on defence capability development be strengthened?
Visa övriga...
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Defence Studies, ISSN 1470-2436, E-ISSN 1743-9698, Vol. 23, nr 3, s. 399-420Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the last thirty years, suggestions for how to develop defence capability have developed rapidly. However, supporting theory and structured concept development lag behind. Despite this imbalance, countries need to continuously spend resources on defence development. This study identifies central challenges in relation to the scientific perspectives and approaches needed to support the development of defence capability. The results show that the support for developing interactions between technology and social components is especially weak and that relevant supporting theories and methods from related fields are not considered. This study also shows that it is important to be able to address these questions from various perspectives and not to be limited by a specific scientific tradition. Finally, this study also identifies a possible emerging cluster of reports on capability-related research that provide a base for a much-needed cross-disciplinary approach to the development of defence capability.

Nyckelord
Defence capability development, sociotechnical systems, systems science for defence and security, system of systems
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan samhällsvetenskap
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-11727 (URN)10.1080/14702436.2023.2239722 (DOI)
Tillgänglig från: 2023-07-30 Skapad: 2023-07-30 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-01-04Bibliografiskt granskad
Modig, O. & Andersson, K. (2022). Military Innovation as the Result of Mental Models of Technology. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 5(1), 45-62
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Military Innovation as the Result of Mental Models of Technology
2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, E-ISSN 2596-3856, Vol. 5, nr 1, s. 45-62Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Heightened political tensions and advances in technological development have prompted Scandinavian countries to increase investment in military research and capability development. The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of why actors sharing similar strategic cultures implement new technology for military purposes differently. The research is founded on a cognitive-psychological perspective comparing two cases of innovation processes: Swedish nuclear weapons development during the Cold War and developments in Swedish cyber defence during the first decades of the 21st century. The main finding is that military innovation is better explained through a consideration of shared mental models of new technology than it is through a consideration of strategic cultures. The analysis shows there are implications for capability development. First, military innovation processes are only initiated if and when new technology appears militarily relevant to an actor; thus, the ability to correctly assess the military relevance of technology at an early stage is crucial. Second, the forming of shared mental models can both contribute to and counteract military innovation and, thus, decision-makers need to be aware both that mental models can be shared and that confirmation bias affects actors on a collective level. Third, it is likely that military innovation processes benefit from mental models being challenged and from diverging mental models being made evident. Consequently, it is good practice, also from this study’s perspective, to diversify and welcome different views on the use of new technology. Further studies are solicited in order to develop practical guidelines.

Nyckelord
military innovation, technology forecast, military utility, mental model, confirmation bias, strategic culture
Nationell ämneskategori
Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10783 (URN)10.31374/sjms.117 (DOI)
Tillgänglig från: 2022-04-18 Skapad: 2022-04-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-04-22Bibliografiskt granskad
Kindström Andersson, K., Andersson, K., Jouannet, C., Amadori, K. & Krus, P. (2022). System of systems lessons to be learned in the development of air power for the future: a small state’s perspective. In: : . Paper presented at AIAA SCITECH 2022 Forum, January 3-7, 2022, San Diego, CA & Virtual.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>System of systems lessons to be learned in the development of air power for the future: a small state’s perspective
Visa övriga...
2022 (Engelska)Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Sweden, as a small alliance free state with powerful neighbors, has a military history of what we nowadays call systems of systems thinking. Since the beginning of the Cold War thishas been expressed in an air force on the forefront of exploiting military innovations, not least with regard to sensor networks, datalinks, information sharing and distributed decision making. How can this history and the lessons learned come to use when future systems and technologies are to be developed to meet the uncertain future and changing threats? How does this fit with current trends such as capability-based approach and system of systemsengineering methodology? What could this mean for the development of the next generation fighter aircraft - after the Gripen E and contemporary aircraft? These questions have been studied from both a government and industry perspective, following the trend in the defense sector of a more intertwined relationship between the two, necessitated by adopting acapability view on aircraft development. This paper presents preliminary lessons identified from a case study on the project Flygvapnet 2000 (FV2000), which preceded the Net Centric Warfare era at the turn of the millennium. The analysis was based on characteristics of best practice systems of systems engineering derived from a review of literature presenting the methodology theory on capability-based approaches for analyzing, acquiring, developing, and managing military capabilities. The findings from this project will contribute to the development of systems of systems engineering methods and will spur proposals for future research.

Nyckelord
Capability, Systems of Systems Engineering, SoSE, SE
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10604 (URN)10.2514/6.2022-1471 (DOI)
Konferens
AIAA SCITECH 2022 Forum, January 3-7, 2022, San Diego, CA & Virtual
Forskningsfinansiär
Vinnova, 2019-02775
Tillgänglig från: 2022-01-12 Skapad: 2022-01-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-02-02Bibliografiskt granskad
Silfverskiöld, S., Andersson, K. & Lundmark, M. (2021). Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?. Technology in society, 67, 1-10, Article ID 101736.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?
2021 (Engelska)Ingår i: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 67, s. 1-10, artikel-id 101736Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficientalternative to methods such as NATO’s Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of theSwedish Armed Forces’ long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study iswhether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to othersmall to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark’s framework for scienceand technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFTreports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows thatMUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method’s limitations.The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces forchange, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as thesynthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensiveexpertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor’s military capabilities and insubjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier, 2021
Nyckelord
Technology forecasting, Intelligence analysis, Military utility assessment, Future technologies, MUAFT, Military utility
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10299 (URN)10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101736 (DOI)000704511300018 ()
Projekt
Värdering av militär nytta
Tillgänglig från: 2021-09-17 Skapad: 2021-09-17 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-05-11Bibliografiskt granskad
Hult, G., Almbladh, T., Andersson, K., Bull, P., Dansarie, M., Granholm, J. & Lagg, E. (2021). Technology Forecast 2021 – Military Utility of Future Technologies. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2021 – Military Utility of Future Technologies
Visa övriga...
2021 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2021 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to Systems Science for Defence and Security Division to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.

The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:

·       Adversarial Machine Learning 

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

·       Living Sensors

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). 

The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:

·       High Entropy Ceramics

·       Machine Learning in Materials Development

·       Adversarial Machine Learning

The following technology was assessed to potentially have moderate military utility:

·       Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles 

The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility:

·       Living Sensors

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2021. s. 45
Nyckelord
Military technology, forecast, military utility
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10616 (URN)
Projekt
Teknisk prognosTechnology forecast
Tillgänglig från: 2022-01-14 Skapad: 2022-01-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-01-17Bibliografiskt granskad
Andersson, K. (2020). Notes on military capability concepts and their relevance for analysis of system characteristics.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Notes on military capability concepts and their relevance for analysis of system characteristics
2020 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

A plethora of views, definitions and concepts concerning military capability can cause misunderstandings among scholars and professionals in the defence and security sector, as well as they can confuse the public on important issues. This study captures and describes a few in an effort to increase awareness; Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions, Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL, Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power. The study also highlights their systemic character and guides the reader briefly in matching issues with suitable concepts.

Appendix 1 matches Swedish concepts to those listed in the study.

Förlag
s. 12
Nyckelord
Capability, Combat Power, Fighting Power, Joint functions, Warfighting functions, Elements of combat power, Warfighting Capability, DOTMLPF(I), TEPIDOIL, Fundamental inputs to capability, Defence lines of Development, and Military Power.
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-9463 (URN)
Tillgänglig från: 2020-10-05 Skapad: 2020-10-05 Senast uppdaterad: 2021-01-14Bibliografiskt granskad
Lundmark, M., Andersson, K., Bull, P. & Dansarie, M. (2019). Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
2019 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. s. 32
Nyckelord
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective, teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750 (URN)
Forskningsfinansiär
Försvarsmakten, 1129002
Tillgänglig från: 2019-09-25 Skapad: 2019-09-25 Senast uppdaterad: 2020-10-01Bibliografiskt granskad
Andersson, K., Lundmark, M. & Silfverskiöld, S. (2019). The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies. Stockholm
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies
2019 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: , 2019. s. 11
Nyckelord
MUAFT, Technology Forecast
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8660 (URN)
Forskningsfinansiär
Försvarsmakten
Tillgänglig från: 2019-06-26 Skapad: 2019-06-26 Senast uppdaterad: 2021-09-29Bibliografiskt granskad
Andersson, K. (2018). Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective. Systems Engineering, 21(1), 3-15
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Key requirements in the procurement of future low observablecombat vehicles: a European perspective
2018 (Engelska)Ingår i: Systems Engineering, ISSN 1098-1241, E-ISSN 1520-6858, Vol. 21, nr 1, s. 3-15Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study is to propose guidelines for the systems engineering of future stealth combat vehicles using Low Observable Technology (LOT). A case study approach, based on interviews and document reviews, was used to analyze the systems engineering processes of the SEP multirole armored vehicle and the Visby class corvette respectively. The result is a thorough investigation of what worked in the cases studied, butwith lessons extrapolated into recommendations for future development programs. These will have to deal with an increasingly complex sensor threat and a transformed, multilateral, European procurement environment. The main conclusion is that coherence and traceability between military needs on the battlefield and signature requirements is expected to be particularly challenging. A workflow tailored for requirements analysis in LO combat vehicle programs has, therefore, been derived and is presented here. In addition, themost important enablers for future multilateral development programs involving LOT have been identified as: establishing common best practices, demonstrator programs, an integrated product team approach, and, in line with similar work on combat aircraft, establishing stealth as a key architectural  principle.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
John Wiley & Sons, 2018
Nyckelord
camouflage, low observable technology, SEP, signature management, stealth, systems engineering
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7167 (URN)10.1002/sys.21410 (DOI)
Tillgänglig från: 2018-01-02 Skapad: 2018-01-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2020-11-04Bibliografiskt granskad
Organisationer
Identifikatorer
ORCID-id: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-6104-5788

Sök vidare i DiVA

Visa alla publikationer