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Publikasjoner (10 av 49) Visa alla publikasjoner
Lundmark, M. (2022). The Evolution Towards the Partial Strategic Autonomy of Sweden’s Essential Security Interests. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(4), 399-420
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>The Evolution Towards the Partial Strategic Autonomy of Sweden’s Essential Security Interests
2022 (engelsk)Inngår i: Defence and Peace Economics, ISSN 1024-2694, E-ISSN 1476-8267, Vol. 33, nr 4, s. 399-420Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

This article describes how Sweden developed a hybrid defence-industrial infrastructure with three prioritized ‘essential strategic interests’ pointing to parts of the domestic defence industry: ‘a partial strategic autonomy’. The article focuses on Sweden’s declared three essential security interests – combat aircraft; underwater capabilities; and integrity-critical parts of the command and control. The article finds that the possibilities and ways forward for the essential security interests vary, with a general trend towards more shared and increasingly partial autonomy. Six change factors are formulated as drivers towards Sweden’s partial strategic autonomy of today: Autonomy as a result of failed internationalization; Techno-nationalist perception of Sweden leading to industrial protectionism; Strategic choice; Corporate lobbying; Export incentives leading to political support of technologies; and Europeanization of the EU defence industry. Techno-nationalism and strategic choice are the factors with the most evident impact. The overall governance of the defence industry is clear on the priority of ensuring security of supply and a high degree of autonomy regarding the three essential security interests. Other parts of the defence industry operate under globalized and more competitive conditions.  In order to apply increased economic rationality and strive for shared autonomy, Sweden must increase its engagement in multilateral arms collaboration. 

Emneord
Sweden, defence industry, partial strategic autonomy, essential security interests
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10489 (URN)10.1080/10242694.2021.1992713 (DOI)000711760300001 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2021-12-01 Laget: 2021-12-01 Sist oppdatert: 2022-07-12bibliografisk kontrollert
Silfverskiöld, S., Andersson, K. & Lundmark, M. (2021). Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?. Technology in society, 67, 1-10, Article ID 101736.
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?
2021 (engelsk)Inngår i: Technology in society, ISSN 0160-791X, E-ISSN 1879-3274, Vol. 67, s. 1-10, artikkel-id 101736Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficientalternative to methods such as NATO’s Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of theSwedish Armed Forces’ long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study iswhether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to othersmall to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark’s framework for scienceand technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFTreports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows thatMUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method’s limitations.The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces forchange, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as thesynthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensiveexpertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor’s military capabilities and insubjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Elsevier, 2021
Emneord
Technology forecasting, Intelligence analysis, Military utility assessment, Future technologies, MUAFT, Military utility
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10299 (URN)10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101736 (DOI)000704511300018 ()
Prosjekter
Värdering av militär nytta
Tilgjengelig fra: 2021-09-17 Laget: 2021-09-17 Sist oppdatert: 2022-05-11bibliografisk kontrollert
Lundmark, M., Andersson, K., Bull, P. & Dansarie, M. (2019). Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Technology Forecast 2019 – Military Utility of Future Technologies: A report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military Technology Division
2019 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. The assessment centred on 5G has the perspective 2030, due to the rapid development of telecommunication standards.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility potential: significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility:

  • Cognitive Radar

The following technology was assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • 5G technologies in military applications

The following technology was assessed to have an uncertain potential military utility:

  • Multi-Domain UxS

The following technologies were assessed to have negligible military utility.

  • Blockchains
  • Optical Atomic Clocks

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2019. s. 32
Emneord
technology forecast, military utility, Swedish Armed Forces, twenty year perspective, teknisk prognos, militär nytta, scenario, Försvarsmakten, tjugoårsperspektiv
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8750 (URN)
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Armed Forces, 1129002
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-09-25 Laget: 2019-09-25 Sist oppdatert: 2020-10-01bibliografisk kontrollert
Lundmark, M. (2019). The Gripen Fighter: Present and Future Flight. Paris: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>The Gripen Fighter: Present and Future Flight
2019 (engelsk)Annet, Policydokument (Annet (populærvitenskap, debatt, mm))
Abstract [en]

The article describes the present development and status regarding the Swedish fighter aircraft Gripen.

sted, utgiver, år, sider
Paris: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, 2019. s. 6
Serie
Défense & industries, ISSN 2274-598X ; 13
Emneord
Gripen, fighter, development, collaboration, export, restructuring
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8645 (URN)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-06-24 Laget: 2019-06-24 Sist oppdatert: 2022-04-13bibliografisk kontrollert
Andersson, K., Lundmark, M. & Silfverskiöld, S. (2019). The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies. Stockholm
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>The Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies
2019 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each step of the process and ends with references and a template for the technology memos used as basis for assessment.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: , 2019. s. 11
Emneord
MUAFT, Technology Forecast
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8660 (URN)
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Armed Forces
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-06-26 Laget: 2019-06-26 Sist oppdatert: 2021-09-29bibliografisk kontrollert
Lundmark, M. (2019). The Swedish defence industry: drawn between globalization and the domestic pendulum of doctrine and governance (1ed.). In: Hartley, Keith & Belin, Jean (Ed.), The Economics of the Global Defence Industry: (pp. 290-311). New York: Routledge
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>The Swedish defence industry: drawn between globalization and the domestic pendulum of doctrine and governance
2019 (engelsk)Inngår i: The Economics of the Global Defence Industry / [ed] Hartley, Keith & Belin, Jean, New York: Routledge, 2019, 1, s. 290-311Kapittel i bok, del av antologi (Fagfellevurdert)
sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
New York: Routledge, 2019 Opplag: 1
Serie
Routledge Studies in Defence and Peace Economics ; 16
Emneord
defence industry, Sweden, doctrine, governance, globalization, procurement
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8768 (URN)10.4324/9780429466793 (DOI)9781138608092 (ISBN)9780429466793 (ISBN)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-10-22 Laget: 2019-10-22 Sist oppdatert: 2022-01-03bibliografisk kontrollert
Axelson, M., Lundmark, M., Olsson, P. & Öhrn-Lundin, J. (2018). Förutsättningar för undervattensförmåga - dagens resurser och morgondagens effekter. Stockholm: FOI
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Förutsättningar för undervattensförmåga - dagens resurser och morgondagens effekter
2018 (svensk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: FOI, 2018. s. 29
Serie
FOI Memo ; 6314
Emneord
Undervattensförmåga, vidmakthållande, resurser, Sverige
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7250 (URN)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-02-02 Laget: 2018-02-02 Sist oppdatert: 2019-08-26bibliografisk kontrollert
Lundmark, M., Amann, D., Dansarie, M., Löfgren, L. & Sturesson, P. (2018). Technology Forecast 2018: Military Utility of Future Technologies. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS)
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Technology Forecast 2018: Military Utility of Future Technologies
Vise andre…
2018 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

Summary

Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a timeframe up to the year 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.

In the review, we assess the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios.

The technologies are grouped into four classes of military utility: potentially significant, moderate, negligible or uncertain.

The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:

  • Rapid field      identification of harmful microorganisms
  • Hypersonic      propulsion

 

The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility:

  • Non-line-of-sight      imaging
  • Artificial      intelligence for military decision support

 

The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:

  • Structural      energy storage
  • Triboelectric      nanogenerators

 

No technology was found to have negligible military utility.

The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. A new methodological step this year was for each reviewer to discuss the assigned technologies with researchers from FOI. This proved to be a valuable enhancement for understanding the technologies’ present state and likely future development.

The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here, ‘the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios’ has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.

Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.

The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.

Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS), 2018. s. 30
Emneord
military technology, forecast, military utility
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8449 (URN)
Prosjekter
Teknisk prognos
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-03-18 Laget: 2019-03-18 Sist oppdatert: 2020-10-01bibliografisk kontrollert
Lundmark, M. (2017). 1.4 Sweden. In: Defence-industrial links between the EU and the US: (pp. 19-24). Paris: IRIS (The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs)
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>1.4 Sweden
2017 (engelsk)Inngår i: Defence-industrial links between the EU and the US, Paris: IRIS (The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs) , 2017, s. 19-24Kapittel i bok, del av antologi (Annet vitenskapelig)
sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Paris: IRIS (The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs), 2017
Serie
ARES Report ; 20
Emneord
transatlantiskt försvarsindustrisamarbete, EU, säkerhetspolitik
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10381 (URN)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2021-10-10 Laget: 2021-10-10 Sist oppdatert: 2021-11-06
Lundmark, M. (2017). Conditions and success factors for companies in international arms collaboration. In: : . Paper presented at Succeeding in Arms Collaboration: Technology Transfer and Export Control, August 17, 2017, University of St Andrews, Scotland (pp. 1-79).
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Conditions and success factors for companies in international arms collaboration
2017 (engelsk)Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

This report discusses what factors and conditions that support a successful implementation of international defence materiel collaboration. It is based on the analysis of a eight multilateral collaborations, with Sweden as a partner in six of them.

Since the mid-1990s, international defence materiel collaboration has represented an increasingly large share of European nations’ defence procurement. This development is likely to continue. As a framework for future decisions concerning international defence materiel collaboration, an analysis is needed regarding how such collaboration between defence companies actually is implemented. The specific purpose of the report is therefore:

  • To identify factors that influence the accomplishment of international defence materiel collaboration between companies

The report is based on eight case studies of international defence materiel collaboration: Iris-T, Joint Strike Fighter, Meteor, MidCas, Neuron, NFR-90, Taurus, and Viking.

Based on the analysis, the findings are:

-          The main conclusions are that international collaboration between companies has a greater probability of a successful outcome if: companies view the collaboration as being strategic; companies have experience of previous collaboration between them; and one single company has the lead in the collaboration.

-          Factors that shape the conditions, but do not have a direct influence on operations, are for example: the products’ degree of innovation, the number of participating companies and the number of participating states.

Based on these results we recommend decision makers in the concerned ministries and authorities to analyse before engaging in international defence materiel collaboration:

-          the concerned companies’ incentives for collaborating;

-          if companies have shared strategic goals for the collaboration;

-          if the companies are on a similar level of technology, and;

-          to demand that one single company has the lead in the collaboration.

Emneord
defence materiel collaboration, cooperation, defence companies, procurement, acquisition, defence materiel development
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Försvarssystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8349 (URN)
Konferanse
Succeeding in Arms Collaboration: Technology Transfer and Export Control, August 17, 2017, University of St Andrews, Scotland
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-01-25 Laget: 2019-01-25 Sist oppdatert: 2020-01-18bibliografisk kontrollert
Organisasjoner
Identifikatorer
ORCID-id: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-1197-8173